Kyle Pitts NFL Week 4 projections and prop bets for New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons on Sep 29, 2024
Kyle Pitts Player Prop Bet: Receptions
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Receptions 3.5 over: 125
- Receptions 3.5 under: -165
Trends Favoring The Over Receptions Prop Bet
The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.7 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
Our trusted projections expect Kyle Pitts to notch 5.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Kyle Pitts's 43.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the league leaders: 95th percentile for tight ends.
The Atlanta offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all passing game statistics across the board.
Trends Favoring The Under Receptions Prop Bet
The Falcons are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 55.9% of their chances: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Kyle Pitts ranks as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL among TEs, completing just 61.4% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 4th percentile.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (71.4%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (71.4%).
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New Orleans's LB corps has been great since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in the NFL.
Projection For Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop Bet
Kyle Pitts is projected to have 3.6 Receptions in this weeks game.
For more player prop bets & game projections visit the ATS.io NFL props section
Kyle Pitts Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Receiving Yards 35.5 over: 100
- Receiving Yards 35.5 under: -130
Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet
The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.7 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
Our trusted projections expect Kyle Pitts to notch 5.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs.
In regards to air yards, Kyle Pitts ranks in the towering 99th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accruing a striking 59.0 per game.
Kyle Pitts's 43.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the league leaders: 95th percentile for tight ends.
Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet
The Falcons are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 55.9% of their chances: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Kyle Pitts ranks as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL among TEs, completing just 61.4% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 4th percentile.
With a weak 2.66 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (4th percentile) since the start of last season, Kyle Pitts ranks among the leading pass-catching TEs in the NFL in the open field.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (71.4%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (71.4%).
Projection For Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Kyle Pitts is projected to have 42.5 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
For more player prop bets & game projections visit the ATS.io NFL props section
