Jordan Mason NFL Week 4 projections and prop bets for New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers on Sep 29, 2024
Jordan Mason Player Prop Bet: Carries
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
- Carries 19.5 over: -130
- Carries 19.5 under: -100
Trends Favoring The Over Carries Prop Bet
An extreme running game script is implied by the 49ers being a huge 11.5-point favorite in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to run on 46.9% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate on the slate this week.
The model projects Jordan Mason to notch 20.4 rush attempts in this game, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Jordan Mason has been a more integral piece of his team's ground game this season (68.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (7.2%).
As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, New England's group of safeties has been lousy since the start of last season, profiling as the 5th-worst in the league. in the league.
Trends Favoring The Under Carries Prop Bet
The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 49ers have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.
Projection For Jordan Mason Carries Prop Bet
Jordan Mason is projected to have 18.1 Carries in this weeks game.
For more player prop bets & game projections visit the ATS.io NFL props section
Jordan Mason Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Receiving Yards 9.5 over: -115
- Receiving Yards 9.5 under: -115
Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Opposing teams have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
When it comes to air yards, Jordan Mason grades out in the towering 88th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 2.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
The Patriots pass defense has been gouged for the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (86.8%) to RBs since the start of last season (86.8%).
When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's group of LBs has been terrible since the start of last season, projecting as the 5th-worst in football.
Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet
An extreme running game script is implied by the 49ers being a huge 11.5-point favorite in this game.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 53.1% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 49ers have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.
Jordan Mason checks in as one of the bottom RBs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 3.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 12th percentile among RBs.
Projection For Jordan Mason Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Jordan Mason is projected to have 15.4 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
For more player prop bets & game projections visit the ATS.io NFL props section
Jordan Mason Player Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Rushing Yards 79.5 over: -135
- Rushing Yards 79.5 under: 105
Trends Favoring The Over Rushing Yards Prop Bet
An extreme running game script is implied by the 49ers being a huge 11.5-point favorite in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to run on 46.9% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate on the slate this week.
The model projects Jordan Mason to notch 20.4 rush attempts in this game, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Jordan Mason has been a more integral piece of his team's ground game this season (68.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (7.2%).
With an exceptional rate of 47.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (75th percentile), Jordan Mason ranks as one of the best pure rushers in football since the start of last season.
Trends Favoring The Under Rushing Yards Prop Bet
The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 49ers have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.
The New England Patriots defense boasts the best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, conceding just 3.63 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection For Jordan Mason Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Jordan Mason is projected to have 83.8 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
For more player prop bets & game projections visit the ATS.io NFL props section
