Jerome Ford NFL Week 4 projections and prop bets for Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders on Sep 29, 2024
Jerome Ford Player Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Rushing Yards 42.5 over: -110
- Rushing Yards 42.5 under: -120
Trends Favoring The Over Rushing Yards Prop Bet
The model projects the Browns to call the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The most plays in the league have been run by the Browns since the start of last season (a monstrous 63.6 per game on average).
The projections expect Jerome Ford to accrue 13.5 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among running backs.
Jerome Ford's 4.6 adjusted yards per carry this year illustrates a meaningful progression in his running prowess over last year's 3.6 figure.
Trends Favoring The Under Rushing Yards Prop Bet
The projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 7th-least run-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 37.5% run rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Jerome Ford has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this season, staying on the field for 67.6% of snaps vs just 52.0% last season.
The Raiders defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.
Projection For Jerome Ford Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Jerome Ford is projected to have 54.7 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
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Jerome Ford Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Receiving Yards 16.5 over: -110
- Receiving Yards 16.5 under: -120
Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Right now, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (62.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Browns.
The model projects the Browns to call the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The most plays in the league have been run by the Browns since the start of last season (a monstrous 63.6 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Since the start of last season, the weak Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has been torched for a staggering 85.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 8th-largest rate in the NFL.
Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Jerome Ford's pass-catching effectiveness has worsened this year, compiling just 3.44 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 5.10 mark last year.
Jerome Ford profiles as one of the weakest RBs in the league at picking up extra yardage in the passing game, averaging just 6.92 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 21st percentile.
Projection For Jerome Ford Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Jerome Ford is projected to have 21.2 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
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