Isaiah Likely NFL Week 4 projections and prop bets for Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens on Sep 29, 2024
Isaiah Likely Player Prop Bet: Receptions
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Receptions 3.5 over: 120
- Receptions 3.5 under: -155
Trends Favoring The Over Receptions Prop Bet
In this week's game, Isaiah Likely is projected by the projection model to land in the 77th percentile among tight ends with 3.8 targets.
The Ravens offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all pass game stats across the board.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Trends Favoring The Under Receptions Prop Bet
A rushing game script is implied by the Ravens being a 3-point favorite in this game.
The predictive model expects the Ravens as the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the predictive model to see just 122.0 total plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.
Isaiah Likely's 76.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this season conveys a remarkable reduction in his pass-catching ability over last season's 82.1% rate.
Since the start of last season, the anemic Bills pass defense has been gouged for a staggering 75.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 10th-largest rate in football.
Projection For Isaiah Likely Receptions Prop Bet
Isaiah Likely is projected to have 2.6 Receptions in this weeks game.
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Isaiah Likely Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Receiving Yards 36.5 over: -115
- Receiving Yards 36.5 under: -115
Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet
In this week's game, Isaiah Likely is projected by the projection model to land in the 77th percentile among tight ends with 3.8 targets.
Isaiah Likely grades out in the 98th percentile when it comes to TEs this year with an astounding 22.7% of his offense's air yards accumulated.
The Ravens offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all pass game stats across the board.
Isaiah Likely ranks as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 32.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.
With an impressive 8.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (98th percentile) since the start of last season, Isaiah Likely ranks as one of the leading tight ends in the pass game in football in the open field.
Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet
A rushing game script is implied by the Ravens being a 3-point favorite in this game.
The predictive model expects the Ravens as the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the predictive model to see just 122.0 total plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.
While Isaiah Likely has received 20.3% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a less important option in Baltimore's passing attack in this week's contest at 15.0%.
The Bills pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against tight ends this year, allowing 4.94 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-fewest in football.
Projection For Isaiah Likely Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Isaiah Likely is projected to have 30.2 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
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