Brock Purdy NFL Week 4 projections and prop bets for New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers on Sep 29, 2024
Brock Purdy Player Prop Bet: Touchdown Passes
Touchdown Passes Prop Bet Odds:
- Touchdown Passes 1.5 over: -109
- Touchdown Passes 1.5 under: -125
Trends Favoring The Over Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
Opposing teams have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
Brock Purdy is positioned as one of the most accurate passers in the league since the start of last season with a terrific 69.4% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 100th percentile.
Brock Purdy has been one of the top TD throwers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 1.84 per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile.
Since the start of last season, the porous New England Patriots defense has been torched for a monstrous 72.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.
When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's group of LBs has been terrible since the start of last season, projecting as the 5th-worst in football.
Trends Favoring The Under Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
An extreme running game script is implied by the 49ers being a huge 11.5-point favorite in this game.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 53.1% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the 49ers to be the 8th-least pass-centric team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 50.0% red zone pass rate.
The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 49ers have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.
Projection For Brock Purdy Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
Brock Purdy is projected to have 1.6 Touchdown Passes in this weeks game.
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Brock Purdy Player Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Rushing Yards 9.5 over: -110
- Rushing Yards 9.5 under: -120
Trends Favoring The Over Rushing Yards Prop Bet
An extreme running game script is implied by the 49ers being a huge 11.5-point favorite in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to run on 46.9% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate on the slate this week.
After comprising 6.9% of his team's carries last season, Brock Purdy has been more involved in the run game this season, now taking on 14.0%.
As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, New England's group of safeties has been lousy since the start of last season, profiling as the 5th-worst in the league. in the league.
Trends Favoring The Under Rushing Yards Prop Bet
The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 49ers have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.
The New England Patriots defense boasts the best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, conceding just 3.63 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection For Brock Purdy Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Brock Purdy is projected to have 10.4 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
For more player prop bets & game projections visit the ATS.io NFL props section
Brock Purdy Player Prop Bet: Passing Yards
Passing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Passing Yards 228.5 over: -115
- Passing Yards 228.5 under: -115
Trends Favoring The Over Passing Yards Prop Bet
Opposing teams have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
Brock Purdy rates as one of the top QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 236.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.
Brock Purdy is positioned as one of the most accurate passers in the league since the start of last season with a terrific 69.4% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 100th percentile.
Brock Purdy comes in as one of the best per-play QBs in the league since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 9.48 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 100th percentile.
Since the start of last season, the porous New England Patriots defense has been torched for a monstrous 72.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.
Trends Favoring The Under Passing Yards Prop Bet
An extreme running game script is implied by the 49ers being a huge 11.5-point favorite in this game.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 53.1% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 49ers have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.
The predictive model expects Brock Purdy to attempt 29.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 10th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
Projection For Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop Bet
Brock Purdy is projected to have 241.7 Passing Yards in this weeks game.
For more player prop bets & game projections visit the ATS.io NFL props section
Brock Purdy Player Prop Bet: Interceptions
Interceptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Interceptions 0.5 over: 115
- Interceptions 0.5 under: -150
Trends Favoring The Over Interceptions Prop Bet
Opposing teams have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
The Patriots have intercepted 0.53 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out as the 4th-worst defense in the league by this metric
When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's group of LBs has been terrible since the start of last season, projecting as the 5th-worst in football.
Trends Favoring The Under Interceptions Prop Bet
An extreme running game script is implied by the 49ers being a huge 11.5-point favorite in this game.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 53.1% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 49ers have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.
The predictive model expects Brock Purdy to attempt 29.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 10th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
Projection For Brock Purdy Interceptions Prop Bet
Brock Purdy is projected to have 0.8 Interceptions in this weeks game.
For more player prop bets & game projections visit the ATS.io NFL props section
