The Cincinnati Bengals head to Orchard Park on Sunday to face the Buffalo Bills in what could be the most entertaining game of Week 14 in the AFC. With both teams fighting to stay relevant in the playoff picture, both teams will need to find a way to get defensive stops against explosive offenses. Here, I break down the keys to this game and give you my Bengals vs Bills prediction for Sunday afternoon.
Our Bengals vs Bills Pick
- Pick: Over 52.5
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills
- Date & Time: Sunday, December 7, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- Broadcast: FOX
Bengals vs Bills Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bills –5.5 | Bills –270, Bengals +220 | 53.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Bills are hosting this game at New Era Field, where they’ve gone 5–1 this season. Their offense is averaging 28.1 points per game and is among the league’s most efficient. With the Bengals’ defense ranking among the worst in both total defense and run defense, this matchup looks favorable for Buffalo’s high-octane attack.
- On defense, Buffalo recently suffered a blow. Veteran edge rusher Joey Bosa is dealing with a hamstring issue and could be sidelined or limited. That raises concerns about their ability to generate a consistent pass rush against a Bengals offense that looked good last week against the Baltimore Ravens with Joe Burrow back on the field.
- For the Bengals, this is a crucial spot. Their 4–8 record has them scrambling to stay relevant in the AFC North and Wild Card conversations. Their offense still has enough playmakers to challenge Buffalo, especially if they can avoid turnovers and capitalize on Buffalo’s injury-related vulnerabilities.
- Buffalo comes into this week clinging to the final AFC Wild Card spot. It doesn’t look like the Patriots are slowing down this season, so Buffalo might have to settle for a Wild Card berth. But to get there, they need to win games like this one at home.
Quarterback Play
On Buffalo’s side, Josh Allen has both arm strength and mobility. Against a pass defense that has been among the worst in the league, he is more than capable of making big plays. Buffalo is likely to be aggressive in keeping the ball in Allen’s hands to try and create separation in this contest.
Cincinnati will start Joe Burrow, who recently returned from a turf‑toe injury. Burrow barely completed half of his passes against the Ravens last week. But he had two touchdown passes and didn’t throw any interceptions. If he continues to get more comfortable on the field, the Bengals could get another big road win this week.
Betting Trends
- Buffalo is 6-6 against the spread so far this season.
- The Bengals are 5-7 against the spread entering Week 14.
- The Bengals have gone over the total in 7 of their first 12 games.
- Buffalo has stayed under the total in 7 of their 12 outings.
Bengals vs Bills Model Projection
Score Projection: Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Buffalo Bills 31
Win Probability: Bengals 33%, Bills 67%
Final Thoughts
I’m taking the over in this matchup between the Bengals and Bills. Buffalo should win the game, but I’m expecting a back-and-forth affair where both offenses shine, especially if Burrow is able to play again for Cincinnati.
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