The UNLV Rebels and Boise State Broncos will renew their rivalry on Friday night when they meet for the Mountain West Conference Football Championship Game at Albertsons Stadium in Boise. UNLV brings a strong 10‑2 record and a potent offense, while Boise State is 8‑4 and looking to defeat the Rebels for the second time this year. With a conference title on the line, you can continue reading to get my UNLV vs Boise State prediction right here.
Our UNLV vs Boise State Pick
- Pick: Boise State -4
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: UNLV Rebels vs Boise State Broncos
- Date & Time: Friday, December 5, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
- Broadcast: FOX
UNLV vs Boise State Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Boise State –4.0 | Boise State –180 | UNLV +150 | Over/Under 58.5 |
Key Storylines
- UNLV’s surge for a title shot. The Rebels closed out the regular season at 10‑2, locking up a conference championship berth after a convincing win over their rival Nevada in the Fremont Cannon game. The Rebels have won four games in a row coming into this contest and they will try to win a fifth straight to claim the MWC title on Friday.
- Boise State’s home-field advantage. The Broncos are 8-4 this season and they are at home for the conference title game. Boise State went 5-1 at home for the season and did enough down the stretch to get to the MWC title game. Boise State is tough to beat on their signature blue turf and will try to lift another trophy on it here.
- Redemption and history. Boise State’s octane offense overwhelmed UNLV 56‑31 in their October meeting earlier this season. That game exposed UNLV’s defensive holes and may fuel the Broncos’ confidence heading into this championship showdown.
- Letting the computers decide: Boise State and UNLV both went 6-2 in conference play this season. They were a part of a four-way tie at the top of the conference at that record, with a computer tiebreaker giving them the edge to get to Boise. Now they can prove that they are the best team in the conference without the use of any additional technology.
Quarterback Play
UNLV signal‑caller Anthony Colandrea enters on the back of a stellar regular season. He had 3,050 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. He balances pocket passing with enough mobility to keep defenses honest, and his leadership helped guide a high‑output offense averaging over 37 points per contest.
On the Boise State side, Maddux Madsen handles the offense at quarterback. He’s thrown for 1,994 yards with 15 touchdowns and 7 picks. However, Boise State leans heavily on its rushing attack, making Madsen just one piece of an offense that torched UNLV the first time they played this season.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Boise State has won 10 straight matchups against UNLV and most recently prevailed 56‑31 in their October 2025 matchup.
- Boise State is 7-4-1 against the spread this season.
- UNLV is 7-5 against the spread going into the MWC title game.
- Both teams are 6-6 in the over/under market going into this contest.
UNLV vs Boise State Model Projection
- Score Projection: Boise State 34 – UNLV 24
- Win Probability: Boise State 65%, UNLV 35%
Final Thoughts
I don’t think that Boise State’s dominant performance against UNLV earlier this season was a fluke. The Rebels’ defense will struggle against Boise State again here and I’ll lay the points with the Broncos at home on the blue turf.
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