The stage is set for the Troy Trojans to take on the James Madison Dukes in the Sun Belt Championship on Friday night. Troy arrives with an 8‑4 record, hoping to crash the party at Bridgeforth Stadium in Harrisonburg against a James Madison team that has an 11‑1 record. JMU is a heavy favorite as they look to win the Sun Belt and keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. Before kickoff, you can find my Troy vs James Madison prediction right here.
Our Troy vs James Madison Pick
- Pick: James Madison –23.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Troy Trojans vs James Madison Dukes
- Date & Time: Friday, December 5, 2025, 7:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Bridgeforth Stadium, Harrisonburg, VA
- Broadcast: ESPN
Troy vs James Madison Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| James Madison –23.5 | James Madison –3200, Troy +1400 | 47.5 points |
Key Storylines
- James Madison’s dominance all season. The Dukes are 11‑1 entering this game. Their offense is averaging 451.4 yards per game and 239.8 yards per game on the ground (6th in FBS). They have put up 37.8 points per game (10th in FBS) this season. Their defense is elite, allowing just 253.5 yards per game overall (5th in FBS) and only 84.7 rushing yards per game (5th in FBS). The Dukes have a chance to make the College Football Playoff with a win and some favorable results elsewhere in the Group of Five championship games.
- Troy’s uphill climb. The Trojans have had a solid season at 8‑4, but their offensive production has been spotty. They average 325.6 yards per game (115th in FBS), with only 109.2 rushing yards per game (121st in FBS), and 25.2 points per game (86th in FBS). Their defense is middling, giving up 377.8 yards per game (71st in FBS) and 170.7 rushing yards per game (96th in FBS). They are huge underdogs here, but can play like they have nothing to lose.
- Championship atmosphere and pressure. This is the Sun Belt title game. For James Madison, it’s a chance to cement perhaps build a case for a major bowl or playoff berth. For Troy, it’s a chance at an upset and conference championship glory. The intensity and pressure in this moment could impact both teams in any number of ways.
Quarterback Play
For James Madison, the signal‑caller is Alonza Barnett III. He has thrown for 2,440 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions so far. He benefits from a powerful run game, led by Wayne Knight, who has rushed for 1,051 yards on 169 carries with 8 touchdowns. But Barnett is plenty good on his own.
Troy’s quarterback Tucker Kilcrease has had an up‑and‑down season. He has 1,414 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. The passing game has been adequate, but it will need to be better than that against a JMU defense allowing fewer than 85 rushing yards per game.
Betting Trends
- Both teams are 8-4 against the spread so far this season.
- Both teams went under the total in 7 of their 12 regular-season games.
- James Madison is 2-1 all-time against Troy.
- The Dukes won the last meeting between these teams in 2023, winning 16-14 in Troy.
- That 2023 game was the only meeting between these teams after the year 2000.
Troy vs James Madison Model Projection
Score Projection: James Madison 42 – Troy 13
Win Probability: James Madison 90%, Troy 10%
Final Thoughts
I’m laying the points with James Madison in the Sun Belt title game. Not only are the Dukes superior to Troy heading into this game, but James Madison has a vested interest in running up the score to try and claim a spot in the College Football Playoff. I’ll back the Dukes to win big here as they try to accumulate as many style points as possible.
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