On Sunday Night Football in Week 17 of the NFL season, the Atlanta Falcons will take on the Washington Commanders in Landover, MD. This game will feature two first-round draft picks from the most recent NFL Draft at the quarterback position, as Michael Penix Jr. and Jayden Daniels will do battle. Washington comes into this game as a five-point favorite, while oddsmakers have set the total in this game at 47.
I have broken this Falcons vs Commanders matchup down from all angles from a betting perspective. Using my sophisticated NFL betting models and my experience and knowledge of the NFL betting marketplace, I have identified one best bet for this matchup. You can continue reading to find out what my top Falcons vs Commanders prediction is and how we could arrive at that point.
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Falcons Look For Third Straight Win
The Atlanta Falcons have won two games in a row going into Week 17 of the NFL season. They destroyed the lowly New York Giants in their last game, beating the Las Vegas Raiders the week before that. Here, the Falcons will face a much tougher test than the Raiders and Giants, which is reflected in the NFL odds for this week, as Atlanta is the underdog on the road in what will be a huge test for their rookie quarterback.
Michael Penix Jr. completed 18 of his 27 pass attempts in his first start as a pro against the Giants last week. He had one interception and did not throw a touchdown, though that interception could be blamed on Kyle Pitts dropping the ball directly into the hands of a Giants defender. This week, the Falcons will need more out of Penix for them to keep up with the offense of the Commanders.
Commanders Hope to Build On Dramatic Win
The Washington Commanders got a significant victory in Week 16, beating the Philadelphia Eagles thanks to a late touchdown drive from quarterback Jayden Daniels. Washington turned the ball over five times in that game, and got very lucky that Jalen Hurts was ruled out with a concussion for the Eagles. But the Commanders hung around and made the plays they needed to make late in that game, something they deserve a lot of credit for.
Better ball security will be key for the Commanders if they want to win this game against the Falcons. Washington lost three fumbles against the Eagles, with Daniels throwing two interceptions on top of that. Taking care of the football is the most basic bedrock principle of successful offense in the NFL. If Washington isn’t better in that area of the game against Atlanta, they could suffer a tough loss in front of their home crowd.
Falcons vs Commanders Best Bet
We are going to lay the points with the home favorite in this Falcons vs Commanders matchup. The Commanders should be better at avoiding turnovers than they were against the Eagles. We also expect Penix to struggle in his first road test as a starting quarterback in the NFL. Look for Washington to snag their fourth straight win and to improve to 11-5 going into the final week of the regular season.
