NBA Round 1 Series
The NBA playoffs are officially upon us. Friday’s play-in games will determine the last two first round playoff matchups. The Cavs and Hawks are battling for the right to play the Heat in the first round. The Clippers and Pelicans are playing for the right to get their doors blown off by the Suns in the first round.
Round 1 Series Odds
Six of the eight playoff series are already set. Here are the matchups, seeding and odds for those series in each Conference:
East
2 Boston Celtics -130 vs 7 Brooklyn Nets
3 Milwaukee Bucks -1000 vs 6 Chicago Bulls
4 Philadelphia 76ers -180 vs 5 Toronto Raptors
West
2 Memphis Grizzlies -330 vs 7 Minnesota Timberwolves
3 Golden State Warriors -250 vs 6 Denver Nuggets
4 Dallas Mavericks vs 5 Utah Jazz -300
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Look At The Eastern Conference
The Eastern Conference offers less betting opportunity on NBA Round 1 series than the Western Conference does. The first thing to note in the East is the Bucks 10:1 line is two things. It is both completely warranted but also completely unplayable. Laying those sort of odds are a bankroll killer should the perfect storm of implausible rage.
The Celtics are probably the most favorable price in the East. They are the team that drew the dread 2 seed, knowing a full strength Nets team was waiting as the 7 seed. Even still, the Celtics are still the better team if not the team with better stars. We are stopping short of calling them a betting pick, but the Celtics would be the side to back if you were wagering.
The 76ers and Raptors will likely be a competitive series, with the odds set appropriately. It is a dog or pass spot for me, and I will pass.
Western Conference Bets
The Western Conference gives us some very sound values and betting options. When looking for NBA Round 1 Series betting plays, we want one of two things. The first would be a favorite that is highly probably to advance with odds set too short. Note, we do not have any of those.
The second thing to look for is an underdog in an expected highly competitive series with highly realistic chances of winning. Those we are not short on, as we have two of those.
Warriors vs Nuggets Betting Pick
✅ The 3 through 6 seeds were decided by a gap of just five games between the four teams. The Warriors hung on for the 3 seed, but not due to anything they have done lately. After a 29-7 start to the season, the Warriors were perched atop the league. They were not able to keep that level of play. Since that time they are a quite pedestrian 24-22. Steph Curry has missed time and his health will be a question mark. There has also been ups and downs with the return of Klay Thompson, and I am unsure if he is currently a net positive for the team.
✅ The Warriors are usually not that has to worry about defending a single player to take over a series, but that is the case here. Nikola Jokic is set to win his second straight MVP. Jokic, not Curry is the more likely player to will his team to a series win. Moreover, there is a very realistic chance Jamal Murray returns for the Nuggets. The two man game he and Jokic bring will be even more problems for the Warriors.
✅ The Nuggets took the season series 3-1 from the Warriors. That is another strike against the Warriors. I understand the oddsmakers were always going to favor the Warriors, but too much credit has been given. This is a series that is much closer to 50/50 than most will admit. With the +210 return for the Nuggets to pull off the upset, they are quite a sound value and a great bet.
Betting Pick: Nuggets To Win Series +210
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Other Western Conference Thoughts
The 4 vs 5 matchup between the Jazz and Mavericks has been thrown off course due to a key injury. Mavs star Luka Doncic sustained a calf strain in the regular season finale. His availability for both games 1 and 2 is very much in question. On the surface, the series line being so heavy on the Jazz side is maddening, but it does make sense. The Mavericks may well be without their star for the first two games which take place on their home floor. Dropping even one of those puts them in a very tough spot. Dropping both all but ensures their elimination. It is an odd spot where the Mavs would have benefitted from being the lower seed and getting their star back on their home floor to try to hold serve.
The 2 vs 7 matchup between the Grizzlies and Timberwolves is pretty clear cut. The value side is on the Grizzlies, who should win with relative ease.