We have five betting picks on the UFC Vegas 44 main card. Each fight is listed below. There are four more betting picks for the prelims, and you can find those here.
Rob Font -145 vs Jose Aldo
Fight is five rounds at 135 lbs and is +105 to end inside the distance.
This is an extremely interesting matchup after Jose Aldo got back on track against Marlon Vera and Pedro Munhoz. Also had impressive wins, particularly against Munhoz. Aldo clearly wants to be a boxer at this stage of his career, and he certainly outboxed Munhoz in that last fight. He now will make the walk to face a fighter who will be more than happy to box with him for five rounds or less.
Rob Font is a fantastic boxer who is going to get precisely the style of fight he is looking for. Going into any fight, he would be completely happy to stand and trade with the hands, regardless of opponent. This fight sets up so well for him because he is at least as skilled as Aldo in the stand up, and has other factors working in his favor. He will have superior cardio later in the fight. Aldo has been finished in the third round or later in each of his last three five round fights. Font will be able to take advantage of this with is superior gas tank. He will also be the busier striker throughout. Font lands an entire two significant strikes per minute more than Aldo, but he absorbs the same. The volume will be on Font’s side throughout.
I made a mistake picking Munhoz against Aldo in his last fight. Aldo was always the better boxer and that is the type of fight Aldo wants now. The same is not the case in this matchup and Font is set up to get a nice feather in his cap in the biggest win of his career. The -145 flat price tag is a friendly one and will be our avenue of attack.
Betting Pick: Font -145
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Rafael Fiziev -120 vs Brad Riddell
Fight is at 155 lbs and is +150 to end inside the distance.
My word what a striker’s delight this is. This fight is certainly the people’s main event on the card. There are a large amount of people out there anticipating this fight even more so than the main event.
Rafael Fiziev is arguably the world’s best striking coach. After a hiccup in his UFC debut, he has won four straight fights and absolutely looked the part. His KO of Renato Moicano was a thing of beauty. Perhaps even more impressive was his win against Bobby Green. While he did not keep the cardio of Green late in the fight, the impressiveness of those first two rounds cannot be understated. He takes on another striking coach in this one, but I believe Fiziev to be a level above his opponent.
Brad Riddell similarly is on a four fight win streak, and this was simply an awesome fight to make. Riddell is also a high end striking coach and striker, but that has not fully translated to the octagon. He has had to turn to wrestling in each of his fights thus far. All of his wins have come via decision.
I believe both of these guys are going to be eager to test their own striking against that of their opponent. We may not see the biggest volume display, but it will be artful. I think Fiziev establishes himself as superior by the end of Round 1, and that is when I expect the Riddell game plan to change. He will try to get the fight to the mat, but I think the Fiziev takedown defense and get ups win that matchup. A KO is possible, but the most likely outcome is a Fiziev decision win, and the flat line will be our play.
Betting Pick: Fiziev -120
Leo Santos -190 vs Clay Guida
Fight is at 155 lbs and is +125 to end inside the distance.
Despite there being larger lines on the card, I believe this matchup to be the most lopsided one. Let me start by saying the only potential advantage for Clay Guida is in the cardio department. Even if that turns out to be true, it would only be an advantage in the last two to three minutes of the fight. Guida brings a funky style but I cannot identify a path to victory for him. He brings no power in his strikes, will not win the volume battle, and is out classed in the grappling realm in this matchup.
Leo Santos simply outclasses Guida in every department. He is the superior striker, and has worlds more power than his opponent. Santos would fair very well in an excusive stand up affair, but we are likely to see grappling as well. Santos is savvy and able with getting the fight to the floor. Once there, he has a high end BJJ skill set, and one that Guida will not be able to handle.
Guida is hit or miss with submission defense, so I am not fully comfortable going the ITD route on Santos. A finish is very possible, but I am erring on the side of caution with this fight so as to just take the win. Santos flat is the play.
Betting Pick: Santos -190
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Jimmy Crute -175 vs Jamahal Hill
Fight is at 205 lbs and is -305 to end inside the distance.
Jamahal Hill is a fantastic striker, but it is puzzling why he gets this matchup. In his last fight, he was dragged down to guard by Paul Craig and had his arm mangled in a submission loss. Hill will need to stay upright in this matchup or he is going to have the same outcome once again. Only one fighter has shot takedowns on Hill, and that was Darko Stosic. Stosic managed to take Hill down six times, but Hill was still able to get the decision nod. That same outcome will not be in play if allows takedowns in this one.
Jimmy Crute is a complete fighter that had a bit of bad luck in his last fight with Anthony Smith. A leg kick hit a nerve and deaded a leg of Crute, and the fight was stopped after the first round. I would be remiss to not add Crute won that round against Smith. Crute is a capable striker, and while he is probably at a slight disadvantage in that department, the emphasis is on slight. Where he is worlds better is in the grappling realm. He has very solid wrestling and I don’t think he will have issues getting Hill to the mat. Once there, the high end BJJ black belt will be able to go to work on Hill. The gap in skill on the mat is easily the biggest gap anywhere in this fight.
While Hill is live for a KO essentially against anyone, this is a terrible matchup for him. Crute might test the striking, but certainly has a path of least resistance on the floor. It likely takes just one takedown for the submission to come. I do believe a Crute submission is the most likely outcome, but there is really no value in betting that way. The +100 ITD line just does not bring enough change to pivot off of the -175 flat line.
Betting Pick: Crute -175
Brendan Allen -360 vs Chris Curtis
Fight is at 185 lbs an is -150 to end inside the distance.
This fight is a lower level than the one above, but it really is not dissimilar. Chris Curtis is a great boxer who notched a KO win of Phil Hawes last month in his UFC debut. Hawes made the mistake of accepting striking with Curtis instead of getting the fight down to the mat. Curtis is dangerous in the stand up but is quite limited on the floor, especially when facing a high end grappler.
Brendan Allen has long been a great grappler, but has been a little too eager to test his striking at times. That approach lead to his lone UFC loss. Granted, it was against high end striker Sean Strickland, so no real shame in that. In what was a shocking development, Allen won a striking battle with Puna Soriano in his last fight. That will build his confidence, but he has a very defined path to victory in this one. Instead of messing around with striking, he should aim to clinch and drag this fight to the floor at the onset. Curtis simply will have no answer for the Allen grappling skill set, and a submission is not only likely, it is the most likely outcome of the fight.
With the ITD line of +135 bringing much better value than the flat line of -360 on Allen, that will be our avenue of attack. The game plan should be simple for Allen, and I expect it to play out much like his submission win of Karl Roberson.
Betting Pick: Allen ITD +135
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