Sean Strickland vs Jack Hermansson Fight Odds
Sean Strickland -215 vs Jack Hermansson
Fight is five rounds at 185 lbs and is -135 to end inside the distance.
Fight Breakdown
Sean Strickland is entering his second consecutive main event and stiffest test of his career. That is stiffest test according to fighter ranking. Jack Hermansson is a well rounded fighter, but is truly at his best when he can get his grappling game going.
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Strickland has taken the middleweight division by storm since his return from his motorcycle accident. In four fights since his 2020 return, his record is perfect and he is yet to have a truly competitive fight. Strickland’s striking is sharp and crisp. He brings ample if not enormous power. He also brings volume. Loads and loads of striking volume. In the four fights at middleweight since his return to the weight class, he is averaging over 7 significant strikes landed per minute. His trend at this stint at middleweight would rank him top five all time in strikes landed per minute, independent of weight class.
Hermansson is a huge grappling test for anyone at the top of the middleweight division. His BJJ skill set is a strong one, and he will try to take all of his fights to the floor. However, there is scuttlebutt that this fight is a striker vs grappler matchup, and I do not believe that to be the case. Hermansson is a good enough striker that it is unfair to call him just a grappler. At the same time, Strickland is a legitimate grappler in his own right and is completely well rounded. He is not just a striker.
Strickland will have to be very aware of the submission ability of Hermansson. Even if not in a traditional grappling exchange, Hermansson knows how to end a fight. Kelvin Gastelum can attest to that. However, Strickland dictates range so well that fighters have real difficulty getting inside for a sound shot on him. In these last four fights, and against solid grapplers, only one takedown has even been attempted on him. Strickland has landed five of his own in that span.
How It Plays Out And What To Bet
This fight is something of a stylistic nightmare for Hermansson. He was beaten in the stand up portion of his fight with Marvin Vettori, and this one is going to be far worse for him. Strickland is going to own the striking exchanges from beginning to end. More so, he is going to be able to dictate the range and keep himself upright, where he faces essentially no danger.
The -210 flat line on Strickland is a fair price, perhaps even an attractive one. That said, I do not believe Hermansson is going to be able to take the punishment in the stand up for five full rounds. Hermansson is a sound enough striker, but Strickland is truly levels above. I am opting for the more aggressive play on the +160 ITD line on Strickland.
Betting Pick: Strickland ITD +160
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