Magomed Ankalaev vs Thiago Santos Fight Odds
Magomed Ankalaev -585 vs Thiago Santos
Fight is at 205 lbs and is -140 to end inside the distance.
Magomed Ankalaev is certainly on a short list of fighters that have a championship ceiling in the UFC. He is very well rounded, bringing a complete skill set. His striking is crisp with ample power. It comes with good movement and an ability to switch stances. One thing to note however is that he is listed as an orthodox fighter, but spends more time in the southpaw stance. He also has a high end wrestling game to turn to if needed. That said, he has rarely needed it as his striking has been great.
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Marreta
Thiago “Marreta” Santos is coming off a win after a tumultuous 2019 and 2020. After storming the light heavyweight division, he earned a title shot against Jon Jones with a knock out of previous champion Jan Blachowicz. He won the Jones fight on my scorecard (and one of the judge’s), despite blowing out a knee in the first round. After nearly a year and a half recovery, he came back to fight current champ Glover Texeira. He was submitted by Texeira in that fight. However, had Texeira briefly unconscious before the type of Glover rally only he can accomplish.
After the Texeira fight, Santos was matched up with two rangy fighters in Aleksander Rakic and Johnny Walker. We did not see the typical explosion from Marreta in those fights, but I suspect the length and approach of his opponents had something to do with that. Particularly in the fight against Walker. Walker was using teeps and leg kicks with good success to try to keep huge range and the power of Santos away from him.
How The Fight Plays Out
While I do believe Ankalaev should be favored in this fight, a betting line approaching 6:1 feels like pure madness. For the first time in some time, Marreta will be facing a fighter that he will be able to work inside on. He will also have the ability to kick the leg of Ankalaev. I believe he has a yet to be exposed hole of leaving the lead leg too readily available. Simply put, very few will survive Marreta striping the lead leg in volume.
I think we are going to see much more action in this fight than we have seen in the past two Santos fights. The lack of length of Ankalaev will be more inviting for Santos to initiate exchanges. Additionally Ankalaev will be a more willing trading partner. While I believe there is value to be had on Santos to secure a KO at +700 or better, there is a more probable outcome of this fight to bet on. The line for this fight to end inside the distance setting at just -140 is the best value. These two fighters are going to collide and one of them will be knocked out.
Betting Pick: Fight ends inside the distance -140
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