St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins Best Bet – 6/17/2024

St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals

Jun 17, 2024

Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins Details

  • Date: June 17, 2024
  • Venue: LoanDepot Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
    • Braxton Garrett - Marlins

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Cardinals -160, Marlins 135
Runline: Cardinals -1.5 110, Marlins 1.5 -130
Over/Under Total: 7.5 100

St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
St. Louis Cardinals - 59% St. Louis Cardinals - 56.29%
Miami Marlins - 41% Miami Marlins - 43.71%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals square off on June 17, 2024, at LoanDepot Park in what looks to be a lopsided National League matchup. The Marlins are enduring a dreadful season with a 23-48 record, while the Cardinals sit at a middling 35-35, holding onto hopes of climbing the standings.

The Marlins have struggled offensively this season, ranking 29th in home runs, 29th in overall offense, 22nd in team batting average, and 21st in stolen bases. Their offense averages a dismal 3.39 runs per game, according to oddsmakers. In contrast, the Cardinals have been slightly better but still underwhelming, ranking 20th in overall offense, 19th in team batting average, 24th in home runs, and 26th in stolen bases. Their offense has an implied team total of 4.11 runs for this game.

On the mound for Miami will be Braxton Garrett, a left-hander struggling with a 6.10 ERA this season, though his 3.57 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky. Garrett has a 2-2 record over six starts and projects to allow 2.4 earned runs and strike out 4.6 batters over 5.2 innings, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. However, he will have to overcome a tough task, as the Marlins bullpen ranks 22nd in MLB.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals counter with Sonny Gray, who has been stellar this season with a 3.01 ERA and an 8-4 record over 12 starts. Ranked as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB by advanced statistics, Gray projects to allow only 2.1 earned runs and strike out 6.2 batters in 5.5 innings. This solid starting pitching is complemented by a bullpen ranked 5th in MLB.

Offensively, the Marlins will need significant contributions from Jazz Chisholm, who has been their best hitter over the past week, batting .400 with an OPS of .979. For the Cardinals, Ivan Herrera has been red-hot, hitting .500 with a 1.145 OPS over the last seven days.

Given the Marlins' ongoing struggles and the Cardinals' more balanced profile, expect St. Louis to be favored in this matchup, with their higher win probability reflecting their stronger overall roster and current form.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

As it relates to his strikeout talent, Sonny Gray projects as the 16th-best starter in the game currently, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 21.9% underlying K%.

  • THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Josh Bell is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of St. Louis (#2-best on the slate).

  • This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the game.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+12.05 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.50 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Masyn Winn has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+8.75 Units / 28% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.43 vs Miami Marlins 3.65

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-154
80% STL
+131
20% MIA

Total Pick Consensus

7.0/-102
4% UN
7.0/-118
96% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+114
99% STL
+1.5/-135
1% MIA

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
STL
Team Stats
MIA
4.59
ERA
4.18
.268
Batting Avg Against
.242
1.43
WHIP
1.28
.322
BABIP
.302
8.3%
BB%
8.3%
20.4%
K%
25.2%
69.8%
LOB%
72.5%
.259
Batting Avg
.262
.436
SLG
.402
.770
OPS
.719
.333
OBP
.317
STL
Team Records
MIA
26-22
Home
20-33
26-26
Road
15-32
36-37
vRHP
28-36
16-11
vLHP
7-29
25-30
vs>.500
22-43
27-18
vs<.500
13-22
4-6
Last10
3-7
11-9
Last20
7-13
17-13
Last30
12-18
S. Gray
B. Garrett
N/A
Innings
122.0
N/A
GS
23
N/A
W-L
7-3
N/A
ERA
3.91
N/A
K/9
9.30
N/A
BB/9
1.55
N/A
HR/9
1.11
N/A
LOB%
74.2%
N/A
HR/FB%
15.8%
N/A
FIP
3.52
N/A
xFIP
3.19

S. Gray

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/16 BOS
Houck N/A
L0-4 N/A
1.2
1
2
2
1
1
16-31
4/9 SEA
Gilbert N/A
L3-4 N/A
4.2
4
2
2
4
2
52-76
9/29 CHW
Rodon N/A
L1-6 N/A
4.2
5
5
5
6
2
51-86
9/24 WSH
Espino N/A
W8-7 N/A
4
5
4
4
3
4
52-88
9/18 LAD
Scherzer N/A
L1-5 N/A
6
4
4
3
5
2
49-75

B. Garrett

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
8/16 ATL
Toussaint N/A
L2-12 N/A
3
3
3
3
2
6
39-77
8/10 SD
Stammen N/A
L5-6 N/A
3.1
8
5
5
4
1
46-68
8/5 NYM
Hill N/A
W4-2 N/A
5
5
0
0
6
4
56-94
7/24 SD
Weathers N/A
W3-2 N/A
7
4
2
2
10
1
57-85
7/18 PHI
Wheeler N/A
L4-7 N/A
4.1
7
3
2
2
3
53-82

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
STL MIA
STL MIA
Consensus
-156
+136
-154
+131
-162
+136
-155
+130
-156
+132
-152
+128
-159
+135
-152
+130
-160
+135
-155
+130
-160
+135
-155
+130
Open
Current
Book
STL MIA
STL MIA
Consensus
+1.5 (110)
-1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-132)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-132)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-137)
-1.5 (+106)
+1.5 (-132)
-1.5 (+108)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-135)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.0 (-119)
7.0 (-102)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.0 (-118)
7.0 (-102)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.5 (-113)
7.5 (-107)
7.0 (-122)
7.0 (+100)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.0 (-110)
7.0 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.0 (-120)
7.0 (+100)