Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 30, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Turnbull - Phillies
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels
• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 115, Angels 1.5 -135
• Money Line: Phillies -140, Angels 120
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 56%
• Los Angeles Angels - 44%

Projected Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 55.58%
• Los Angeles Angels - 44.42%

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels Game Preview & Prediction

On April 30, 2024, the Los Angeles Angels will face off against the Philadelphia Phillies in an Interleague matchup at Angel Stadium. The Angels, with a disappointing record of 10-18 this season, are struggling, while the Phillies are having a great season with a record of 19-10.

The Angels will be the home team for this game, hoping for a turnaround in their performance. They will be starting left-handed pitcher Tyler Anderson, who has had mixed results this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Anderson is ranked as the #203 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. Despite his decent ERA of 1.78, his xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward.

On the other side, the Phillies will send right-handed pitcher Spencer Turnbull to the mound. Turnbull has been solid this season with a 2-0 record and an impressive ERA of 1.33. However, his xFIP indicates that he may regress in his future performances.

The Angels offense ranks as the #18 best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average. They have shown power, ranking #3 in team home runs, but struggle in stolen bases, ranking #27 in that category. The Phillies offense, on the other hand, ranks as the #7 best in MLB, with a good team batting average and a solid ranking in stolen bases.

In terms of the bullpen, the Angels rank as the #29 best in MLB, while the Phillies have the #3 best bullpen according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that the Phillies have an advantage in the later innings.

Looking at the odds, the Angels are considered underdogs with a current moneyline of +115, giving them a 44% implied win probability. The Phillies, as the betting favorite, have a moneyline of -140, with an implied win probability of 56%.

Overall, the Phillies have been performing well this season and have the advantage in both starting pitching and bullpen. However, the Angels have shown power in their offense, which could pose a challenge for Turnbull. It will be an interesting matchup to watch as the Angels look to turn their season around against a strong Phillies team.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

With 6 hitters of the same handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Spencer Turnbull figures to benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme groundball bats like Cristian Pache generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Tyler Anderson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Bryce Harper projects as the 10th-best hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Among all SPs, Tyler Anderson's fastball velocity of 88.7 mph is in the 3rd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nolan Schanuel is penciled in 9th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jo Adell, Mickey Moniak, Mike Trout).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games (+8.95 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 121 games (+9.30 Units / 5% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto has only hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 16 games (-0.10 Units / -1% ROI)

Phillies vs Angels Prediction: Phillies 5.42 - Angels 4.56

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.