Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 30, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Carrasco - Guardians
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
• Run Line: Guardians 1.5 -160, Astros -1.5 140
• Money Line: Guardians 125, Astros -145
• Total (Over/Under): 9.5

Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 43%
• Houston Astros - 57%

Projected Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 35.22%
• Houston Astros - 64.78%

Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Game Preview & Prediction

The Houston Astros are set to face off against the Cleveland Guardians on April 30, 2024, at Minute Maid Park. As the home team, the Astros will look to improve their struggling record of 9-19 this season, while the Guardians aim to continue their success with a record of 19-9.

On the mound, the Astros are projected to start right-handed pitcher Hunter Brown. Brown has had a tough season with a win/loss record of 0-4 and an ERA of 9.68. However, his 4.38 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. In contrast, the Guardians will start right-handed pitcher Carlos Carrasco, whose ERA of 4.63 is considered average.

The Astros offense has been strong this season, ranking as the 6th best in MLB. They have shown power, ranking 9th in team home runs, but their batting average sits at a more average 14th in the league. On the other hand, the Guardians offense is considered average, ranking 15th overall. They have struggled in terms of power, ranking last in team home runs, but their ability to steal bases gives them an advantage, ranking 7th in the league.

In terms of pitching, the Astros bullpen is ranked 13th best in MLB, while the Guardians bullpen ranks slightly lower at 14th. This suggests that both teams have average bullpen talent.

Looking at the betting odds, the Astros are favored with a moneyline of -145, giving them an implied win probability of 57%. The Guardians, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 43%. The Game Total is set at 9.5 runs, indicating an expectation for a high-scoring game.

Overall, this matchup presents an interesting contrast. While the Astros have the advantage in terms of offensive rankings and projected team total, the Guardians have the advantage on the mound with Carlos Carrasco facing a low-strikeout Astros offense. The outcome of this game could come down to how well Hunter Brown can navigate the low-strikeout Guardians offense and whether the Astros' strong offense can overcome Carrasco's pitching.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Carlos Carrasco's fastball velocity has dropped 2 mph this year (90 mph) below where it was last year (92 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Josh Naylor has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Because groundball hitters have a substantial edge over flyball pitchers, Hunter Brown and his 50.1% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position in today's matchup going up against 1 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Cleveland's #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Kyle Tucker, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The 3rd-best projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Houston Astros.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 64 games (+13.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 66 games (+7.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+8.80 Units / 24% ROI)

Guardians vs Astros Prediction: Guardians 4.26 - Astros 5.58

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