New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 30, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
• Run Line: Yankees -1.5 135, Orioles 1.5 -155
• Money Line: Yankees -120, Orioles 100
• Total (Over/Under): 9.5

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Yankees - 52%
• Baltimore Orioles - 48%

Projected Win %:

• New York Yankees - 55.37%
• Baltimore Orioles - 44.63%

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated American League East matchup, the Baltimore Orioles are set to host the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 30, 2024. Both teams have been enjoying successful seasons so far, with the Orioles boasting a record of 18-10 and the Yankees close behind at 19-11.

The Orioles will have home-field advantage in this game, which could play a significant role in their performance. Their offense has been impressive, ranking as the fourth-best in MLB this season. However, their team batting average sits at an average ranking of 14th among all teams. The Orioles' power-hitting ability is also average, as they rank 17th in team home runs and stolen bases.

On the other hand, the Yankees have been wielding a potent offense as well, ranking as the fifth-best in MLB. However, their team batting average is surprisingly low, placing them at 29th among all teams. Their power-hitting ability is strong, though, as they rank eighth in team home runs. However, their stolen bases rank poorly at 20th.

The pitching matchup for this game will feature the Orioles' right-handed pitcher, Dean Kremer, against the Yankees' left-handed pitcher, Nestor Cortes. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Kremer is ranked at #168 among starting pitchers, implying that he has been performing below average this season. In contrast, Cortes is ranked at #35, indicating a strong performance.

Kremer has started five games this season, with a win-loss record of 1-2. His ERA stands at 4.61, which is considered average, but his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to improve going forward. Cortes has started six games, with a win-loss record of 1-2 as well. His ERA is an impressive 3.50, and his xERA indicates that he has been a bit unlucky, pointing towards potential improvement in his performance.

Looking at the projected stats for the pitchers in this game, Kremer is expected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs. He is also projected to strike out five batters but struggle with allowing hits and walks. Cortes, on the other hand, is expected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs. He is projected to strike out 5.7 batters but also struggle with hits and walks.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Orioles have the advantage, ranking at #10 in MLB, while the Yankees rank at a lower #22. This could be a crucial factor in the late innings of the game.

As for the betting market, the Orioles are currently listed with a moneyline of +100, implying a win probability of 48%. The Yankees, with a moneyline of -120, have a win probability of 52%. This suggests that the game is expected to be closely contested.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Nestor Cortes's four-seamer usage has decreased by 5.1% from last year to this one (52% to 46.9%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Aaron Judge's 97.5-mph average exit velocity is one of the best in the game since the start of last season: 100th percentile.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Projected catcher Jose Trevino projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer's fastball velocity has dropped 1.2 mph this year (92.9 mph) below where it was last year (94.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Typically, batters like Anthony Santander who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Nestor Cortes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles' bullpen ranks as the 10th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 81 of their last 138 games (+19.90 Units / 11% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 57 away games (+11.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+12.95 Units / 86% ROI)

Yankees vs Orioles Prediction: Yankees 5.06 - Orioles 4.26

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