Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet – 4/30/2024

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays

Apr 30, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: April 30, 2024
  • Venue: American Family Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Tyler Alexander - Rays
    • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • Run Line: Rays 1.5 -185, Brewers -1.5 160
  • Money Line: Rays 120, Brewers -145
  • Total (Over/Under): 7.5

Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

  • Tampa Bay Rays - 43%
  • Milwaukee Brewers - 57%

Projected Win %:

  • Tampa Bay Rays - 32.24%
  • Milwaukee Brewers - 67.76%

Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated Interleague matchup, the Milwaukee Brewers are set to take on the Tampa Bay Rays at American Family Field on April 30, 2024. The Brewers, with a season record of 17-11, are having a great season, while the Rays, with a record of 14-16, are having a below-average performance.

The Brewers, as the home team, will be looking to capitalize on their strong season and home-field advantage. They are projected to start Freddy Peralta, a right-handed pitcher who is considered one of the best in the league. Peralta has started five games this year, boasting a perfect 2-0 record with an impressive ERA of 3.18. However, his xERA suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could face some challenges going forward.

On the other hand, the Rays will send left-handed pitcher Tyler Alexander to the mound. Alexander has started five games this season, with a win-loss record of 1-0 and an ERA of 4.74. However, his xERA indicates that he may have been unlucky and could improve in future outings.

The Brewers' offense ranks as the third-best in MLB this season, showcasing their underlying talent and ability to score runs. However, they have struggled with their team batting average, ranking 27th in the league. In contrast, the Rays' offense ranks 24th overall, with a strong batting average ranking of ninth in the league.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Brewers as a big favorite in this game, giving them a win probability of 69%. This projection suggests that the Brewers may have an advantage over the Rays. The current betting odds also favor the Brewers, with a moneyline of -140, indicating an implied win probability of 56%.

Based on the projections, the Brewers are expected to score an average of 4.85 runs, while the Rays are projected to score 3.36 runs. These projections highlight the Brewers' offensive firepower and potential to outscore the Rays in this game.

With the Brewers having a higher projected win probability than their implied win probability, it appears there may be value in betting on the Brewers for this matchup. As the game unfolds, fans and bettors alike will be eagerly watching to see if the Brewers can continue their strong season and secure a victory against the Rays.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Out of all starting pitchers, Tyler Alexander's fastball velocity of 88.6 mph ranks in the 4th percentile since the start of last season.

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Amed Rosario has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jose Siri, Ben Rortvedt, Austin Shenton).

  • Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Compared to the average pitcher, Freddy Peralta has been granted an above-average leash since the start of last season, recording an extra 3.7 adjusted pitches each outing.

  • Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

This year, there has been a decline in Blake Perkins's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 30.02 ft/sec last year to 28.76 ft/sec currently.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Game Trends

  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 33 away games (+11.75 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Freddy Peralta has hit the Earned Runs Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.25 Units / 23% ROI)

Rays vs Brewers Prediction: Rays 3.38 - Brewers 4.79

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+153
14% TB
-182
86% MIL

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-112
10% UN
7.5/-108
90% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-148
7% TB
-1.5/+124
93% MIL

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
TB
Team Stats
MIL
3.88
ERA
4.04
.230
Batting Avg Against
.232
1.20
WHIP
1.22
.282
BABIP
.275
7.7%
BB%
8.2%
24.0%
K%
23.0%
73.2%
LOB%
73.6%
.256
Batting Avg
.233
.443
SLG
.377
.770
OPS
.689
.327
OBP
.312
TB
Team Records
MIL
19-23
Home
22-12
15-15
Road
20-18
22-31
vRHP
33-22
12-7
vLHP
9-8
9-20
vs>.500
15-12
25-18
vs<.500
27-18
3-7
Last10
6-4
9-11
Last20
12-8
13-17
Last30
17-13
T. Alexander
F. Peralta
N/A
Innings
128.0
N/A
GS
23
N/A
W-L
9-8
N/A
ERA
4.08
N/A
K/9
11.04
N/A
BB/9
3.38
N/A
HR/9
1.34
N/A
LOB%
71.5%
N/A
HR/FB%
14.5%
N/A
FIP
4.01
N/A
xFIP
3.76

T. Alexander

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/29 LAD
Anderson N/A
L1-5 N/A
2.1
3
4
4
1
2
30-47
4/24 COL
Kuhl N/A
L2-6 N/A
3.2
8
5
5
2
1
50-80
4/19 NYY
Cole N/A
L2-4 N/A
1
1
2
0
2
2
23-42
4/12 BOS
Hill N/A
L3-5 N/A
5.1
5
3
3
4
0
49-73
10/3 CHW
Cease N/A
W5-2 N/A
6
4
1
1
4
2
58-85

F. Peralta

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 CIN
rrez N/A
W18-4 N/A
5
5
3
3
7
2
63-98
4/28 PIT
Quintana N/A
W3-2 N/A
6
3
0
0
7
0
59-92
4/22 PHI
Suarez N/A
L2-4 N/A
5
3
1
1
6
2
54-89
4/15 STL
Mikolas N/A
L1-10 N/A
3
7
6
6
4
2
49-77
4/10 CHC
Stroman N/A
W5-4 N/A
4
3
3
3
6
4
46-88

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
TB MIL
TB MIL
Consensus
+120
-145
+153
-182
+120
-142
+154
-185
+116
-136
+150
-178
+120
-141
+155
-180
+122
-145
+150
-178
+115
-140
+160
-190
+125
-150
+155
-190
Open
Current
Book
TB MIL
TB MIL
Consensus
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+168)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+175)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+110)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-117)
7.5 (-104)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
8.0 (-108)
8.0 (-112)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (-102)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-109)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)