Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants Pick For 5/27/2024

Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies

May 27, 2024

San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 27, 2024
  • Venue: Oracle Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Taijuan Walker - Phillies
    • Blake Snell - Giants

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Phillies -110, Giants -110
Runline: Phillies -1.5 150, Giants 1.5 -175
Over/Under Total: 8.5 -110

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Philadelphia Phillies - 50% Philadelphia Phillies - 42.35%
San Francisco Giants - 50% San Francisco Giants - 57.65%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League matchup, the San Francisco Giants will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Oracle Park on May 27, 2024. The Giants, with a season record of 27-27, are having an average season, while the Phillies boast an impressive 38-16 record, indicating a great season for them.

The Giants, as the home team, will have the advantage of playing on their own turf. They will be looking to improve their record and secure a win against the tough Phillies. On the other hand, the Phillies, as the away team, will aim to continue their winning streak and maintain their dominance in the league.

The Giants are projected to start left-handed pitcher Blake Snell, who is ranked as the #52 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Snell has had a tough season so far, with a win/loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 11.40. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

The Phillies, on the other hand, are projected to start right-handed pitcher Taijuan Walker. Although Walker's ERA of 5.06 is not ideal, his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been lucky and may perform worse in the future. With a record of 3-0 this season, Walker's performance will be crucial for the Phillies.

In terms of offense, the Phillies have been dominant this season, ranking as the #3 best offense in MLB. They have displayed a strong batting average and have been successful in stealing bases. On the other hand, the Giants have had an average offensive performance, ranking #12 in MLB. Their team batting average and stolen bases have been areas of improvement.

Both teams have strong bullpens, with the Giants ranking as the #1 best bullpen and the Phillies ranking #6 in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could lead to an interesting battle in the late innings of the game.

Considering the team's performance, projections, and rankings, the Phillies enter this game as the favorites. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the Giants will look to use their home-field advantage to challenge the Phillies and secure a much-needed victory.

The game is expected to be a close one, with a Game Total of 8.5 runs. The current moneyline for both teams is set at -110, indicating an equal implied win probability for both teams.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Taijuan Walker's fastball velocity has dropped 1.5 mph this year (90.4 mph) below where it was last season (91.9 mph).

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Johan Rojas has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last season's 29.35 ft/sec to 29.91 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

  • Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Kyle Schwarber pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.4% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Blake Snell has been given more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 3.6 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

  • Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Despite posting a .400 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes LaMonte Wade Jr. has had positive variance on his side given the .070 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330.

  • Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Patrick Bailey, the Giants's expected catcher in today's matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+8.90 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 50 games (+17.70 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 11 games at home (+10.10 Units / 92% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 3.91 vs San Francisco Giants 4.37

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+115
49% PHI
-135
51% SF

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-110
2% UN
8.0/-110
98% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-175
86% PHI
-1.5/+145
14% SF

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
PHI
Team Stats
SF
3.95
ERA
3.89
.238
Batting Avg Against
.247
1.24
WHIP
1.24
.290
BABIP
.302
7.8%
BB%
6.8%
23.8%
K%
23.1%
72.2%
LOB%
72.1%
.255
Batting Avg
.238
.419
SLG
.389
.742
OPS
.703
.323
OBP
.314
PHI
Team Records
SF
36-14
Home
26-21
25-18
Road
19-28
38-17
vRHP
34-31
23-15
vLHP
11-18
25-14
vs>.500
22-32
36-18
vs<.500
23-17
7-3
Last10
5-5
12-8
Last20
9-11
17-13
Last30
14-16
T. Walker
B. Snell
131.2
Innings
N/A
24
GS
N/A
13-5
W-L
N/A
4.03
ERA
N/A
7.25
K/9
N/A
3.76
BB/9
N/A
1.16
HR/9
N/A
75.6%
LOB%
N/A
12.5%
HR/FB%
N/A
4.68
FIP
N/A
4.69
xFIP
N/A
.231
AVG
N/A
19.3%
K%
N/A
10.0%
BB%
N/A
4.92
SIERA
N/A

T. Walker

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/30 PHI
Gibson N/A
L1-4 N/A
5
2
0
0
1
2
44-73
4/11 PHI
Suarez N/A
L4-5 N/A
2
0
0
0
4
0
20-30
9/29 MIA
Hernandez N/A
L2-3 N/A
7.1
2
2
2
5
3
57-90
9/22 BOS
Sale N/A
L5-12 N/A
2
6
6
6
1
2
32-55
9/17 PHI
Wheeler N/A
L3-4 N/A
5
3
2
2
3
0
60-88

B. Snell

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/10 ARI
Smith N/A
W10-5 N/A
0
0
0
0
0
0
-
9/12 LAD
Scherzer N/A
L0-8 N/A
0.2
0
0
0
0
0
5-8
9/7 LAA
Naughton N/A
L0-4 N/A
7
1
2
2
11
2
70-100
8/31 ARI
Gallen N/A
W3-0 N/A
7
0
0
0
10
2
67-107
8/25 LAD
Buehler N/A
L3-5 N/A
7.2
3
1
1
10
0
80-122

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
PHI SF
PHI SF
Consensus
-111
-106
+115
-135
-105
-115
+114
-135
-116
-102
+114
-134
-113
-103
+115
-134
-115
-105
+115
-135
-115
-105
+115
-135
Open
Current
Book
PHI SF
PHI SF
Consensus
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-152)
+1.5 (-187)
-1.5 (+153)
-1.5 (+154)
+1.5 (-185)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+145)
-1.5 (+146)
+1.5 (-178)
+1.5 (-184)
-1.5 (+152)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-190)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+163)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-178)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+143)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-185)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+155)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-122)
7.5 (+100)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-117)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-112)
8.0 (-108)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)