Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Picks 5/27/2024

Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox

May 27, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 27, 2024
  • Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Cooper Criswell - Red Sox
    • Cole Irvin - Orioles

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Red Sox 135, Orioles -155
Runline: Red Sox 1.5 -150, Orioles -1.5 130
Over/Under Total: 9 100

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Boston Red Sox - 41% Boston Red Sox - 38.77%
Baltimore Orioles - 59% Baltimore Orioles - 61.23%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

In an American League East matchup, the Baltimore Orioles will face off against the Boston Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on May 27, 2024. The Orioles, with a record of 33-18, are having a great season, while the Red Sox, with a record of 27-26, are having an average season.

The Orioles, as the home team, will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage. They have been performing well offensively, ranking as the 6th best team in MLB this season. Their offense has been solid, ranking 14th in team batting average, 17th in home runs, and 17th in stolen bases.

On the other hand, the Red Sox offense has been strong, ranking as the 9th best team in MLB. They excel in team batting average, ranking 3rd in the league. However, their ranking in home runs and stolen bases is average at 18th and 16th, respectively.

The Orioles are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cole Irvin, who has been performing well this season. Irvin has started 7 games, with a win/loss record of 4-2 and an ERA of 3.15. However, his 4.06 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this year and could potentially perform worse going forward.

The Red Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Cooper Criswell, who has also been solid this season. Criswell has started 8 games, with a win/loss record of 2-1 and an ERA of 2.86. However, his 3.91 FIP indicates that he may have been lucky as well and could regress in future performances.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Orioles rank 20th in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Red Sox rank 27th. This suggests that the Orioles may have a slight advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Orioles are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -155, implying a win probability of 59%. The Red Sox, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +135, with an implied win probability of 41%.

Overall, this promises to be an exciting game between two division rivals. The Orioles will look to continue their strong season, while the Red Sox aim to improve their performance. With two capable pitchers on the mound and solid offenses, we can expect an intriguing matchup at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Given his huge platoon split, Cooper Criswell will be at a disadvantage matching up with 6 bats in the projected offense who hit from the other side today.

  • Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Garrett Cooper's quickness has increased this year. His 26.35 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.84 ft/sec now.

  • Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 5th-most strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the Boston Red Sox with a 24.8% underlying K%.

  • THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Among all SPs, Cole Irvin's fastball spin rate of 2041 rpm grades out in the 8th percentile this year.

  • Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In terms of his batting average, Jorge Mateo has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .223 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .268.

  • xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Baltimore Orioles hitters collectively have been among the best in the league since the start of last season (5th-) when it comes to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 51 games (+6.70 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.45 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Gunnar Henderson has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 18 games at home (+28.80 Units / 160% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.5 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.43

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+135
16% BOS
-159
84% BAL

Total Pick Consensus

9.0/+102
18% UN
9.0/-122
82% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-148
13% BOS
-1.5/+124
87% BAL

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
BOS
Team Stats
BAL
4.32
ERA
4.12
.252
Batting Avg Against
.243
1.31
WHIP
1.28
.302
BABIP
.299
7.6%
BB%
8.3%
22.9%
K%
23.9%
72.8%
LOB%
73.2%
.262
Batting Avg
.251
.431
SLG
.420
.759
OPS
.737
.327
OBP
.318
BOS
Team Records
BAL
24-25
Home
30-22
30-22
Road
30-19
41-29
vRHP
44-28
13-18
vLHP
16-13
25-33
vs>.500
37-25
29-14
vs<.500
23-16
4-6
Last10
3-7
11-9
Last20
9-11
18-12
Last30
13-17
C. Criswell
C. Irvin
N/A
Innings
53.0
N/A
GS
9
N/A
W-L
1-3
N/A
ERA
4.92
N/A
K/9
8.49
N/A
BB/9
3.06
N/A
HR/9
1.02
N/A
LOB%
69.0%
N/A
HR/FB%
9.1%
N/A
FIP
4.04
N/A
xFIP
4.61

C. Criswell

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
8/27 SD
Musgrove N/A
L0-5 N/A
1.1
6
3
3
0
0
26-41

C. Irvin

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/24 TEX
Richards N/A
W2-0 N/A
5
1
0
0
4
2
53-87
4/19 BAL
Ellis N/A
W2-1 N/A
5
6
1
1
4
2
62-95
4/14 TB
Fleming N/A
W6-3 N/A
6.1
5
3
3
2
0
50-71
4/9 PHI
Gibson N/A
L2-4 N/A
5.1
7
4
4
4
1
62-88
10/3 HOU
Urquidy N/A
L6-7 N/A
6
5
4
4
4
1
55-82

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
BOS BAL
BOS BAL
Consensus
+136
-160
+135
-159
+130
-155
+136
-162
+136
-162
+132
-156
+135
-159
+138
-162
+140
-165
+135
-160
+140
-165
+135
-160
Open
Current
Book
BOS BAL
BOS BAL
Consensus
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+126)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-152)
-1.5 (+128)
+1.5 (-152)
-1.5 (+126)
+1.5 (-159)
-1.5 (+132)
+1.5 (-159)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+120)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-124)
8.5 (+102)
9.0 (-116)
9.0 (-105)
8.5 (-125)
8.5 (+105)
9.0 (-115)
9.0 (-105)
8.5 (-124)
8.5 (+102)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-121)
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-120)
8.5 (-125)
8.5 (+105)
9.0 (-120)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-120)
9.0 (-120)
9.0 (+100)