Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Prediction For 5/27/2024

Houston Astros

Houston Astros

May 27, 2024

Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 27, 2024
  • Venue: T-Mobile Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Framber Valdez - Astros
    • Bryce Miller - Mariners

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Astros -130, Mariners 110
Runline: Astros -1.5 140, Mariners 1.5 -160
Over/Under Total: 7.5 -105

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Houston Astros - 54% Houston Astros - 55.46%
Seattle Mariners - 46% Seattle Mariners - 44.54%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners will take on the Houston Astros in an American League West matchup at T-Mobile Park on May 27, 2024. The Mariners, with a season record of 28-26, are having an above-average season, while the Astros, with a record of 24-29, are having a below-average season.

The Mariners will be the home team for this game, and they will be looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage. The Astros, on the other hand, will be the away team and will be aiming to turn their season around.

The Mariners are projected to start right-handed pitcher Bryce Miller, who has a record of 3-5 this year. Miller has been performing well with an ERA of 3.53, although his peripheral indicators suggest that he may not be able to maintain this level of success going forward. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Miller is ranked as the #121 best starting pitcher in MLB.

The Astros will counter with left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez, who has a record of 3-2 this year. Valdez has been solid with an ERA of 4.32, and his peripheral indicators indicate that he may improve going forward. According to our Power Rankings, Valdez is ranked as the #26 best starting pitcher in MLB.

Both teams will be relying on their starting pitchers to set the tone for the game. Valdez, with his ability to generate ground balls, will be a challenge for the Mariners' offense, which ranks as the #26 best in MLB.

The Astros' offense, which ranks as the #5 best in MLB, will be facing Miller, who has shown some vulnerability this season. However, the Mariners' bullpen, ranked as the #24 best in MLB, will need to step up and support Miller to keep the Astros' offense in check.

In terms of team statistics, the Mariners' offense ranks #24 in MLB in team batting average, #13 in home runs, and #18 in stolen bases. The Astros' offense, on the other hand, ranks #14 in batting average, #9 in home runs, and #12 in stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Mariners have an implied team total of 3.66 runs, while the Astros have an implied team total of 3.84 runs. The low Game Total of 7.5 runs suggests that this will be a close and potentially low-scoring game, according to betting markets.

Overall, this game presents an intriguing matchup between the Mariners and the Astros. The Mariners will need their offense to rise to the occasion against Valdez, while the Astros will look to capitalize on Miller's potential regression. With both teams looking to gain ground in the division, this game has the potential to be a competitive battle on the field.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez's 93.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.5-mph drop off from last season's 94.7-mph mark.

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Jake Meyers has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .243 mark is considerably higher than his .204 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

  • xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Houston's 88.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the worst in the game: #23 overall.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller has recorded 17.6 outs per GS this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile.

  • A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Mitch Haniger has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (85% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Mitch Garver pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+7.70 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+8.00 Units / 13% ROI)
  • J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+13.20 Units / 44% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.34 vs Seattle Mariners 3.65

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-129
67% HOU
+109
33% SEA

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-110
1% UN
7.5/-110
99% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+130
60% HOU
+1.5/-155
40% SEA

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
HOU
Team Stats
SEA
3.79
ERA
3.72
.237
Batting Avg Against
.233
1.26
WHIP
1.18
.289
BABIP
.287
8.7%
BB%
7.0%
24.0%
K%
24.6%
75.3%
LOB%
72.3%
.251
Batting Avg
.237
.417
SLG
.403
.740
OPS
.719
.324
OBP
.315
HOU
Team Records
SEA
27-19
Home
30-18
22-25
Road
22-25
37-29
vRHP
38-33
12-15
vLHP
14-10
16-25
vs>.500
25-26
33-19
vs<.500
27-17
7-3
Last10
5-5
16-4
Last20
8-12
21-9
Last30
16-14
F. Valdez
B. Miller
149.2
Innings
91.1
23
GS
17
9-8
W-L
7-4
3.31
ERA
4.04
8.90
K/9
8.57
2.16
BB/9
1.87
0.90
HR/9
1.28
72.8%
LOB%
70.5%
14.2%
HR/FB%
10.5%
3.44
FIP
3.94
3.29
xFIP
4.31
.225
AVG
.223
24.6%
K%
23.6%
6.0%
BB%
5.2%
3.57
SIERA
4.09

F. Valdez

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/1 TOR
Gausman N/A
L2-3 N/A
6.1
2
3
3
2
2
61-101
4/25 TEX
Dunning N/A
L2-6 N/A
6
4
1
0
5
2
60-97
4/19 LAA
Sandoval N/A
L2-7 N/A
4.1
8
6
6
3
4
50-80
4/13 ARI
Kelly N/A
L2-3 N/A
3
2
1
1
3
5
40-75
4/7 LAA
Ohtani N/A
W3-1 N/A
6.2
2
0
0
6
1
54-84

B. Miller

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
HOU SEA
HOU SEA
Consensus
-120
+100
-129
+109
-130
+110
-130
+110
-112
-104
-126
+108
-129
+110
-129
+110
-120
+100
-130
+110
-120
+100
-125
+105
Open
Current
Book
HOU SEA
HOU SEA
Consensus
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-168)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-163)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+146)
+1.5 (-176)
-1.5 (+132)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+133)
+1.5 (-167)
-1.5 (+132)
+1.5 (-159)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-165)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-112)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-112)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-102)
7.5 (-118)
7.5 (-108)
7.5 (-112)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (-102)
7.5 (-114)
7.5 (-106)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-109)
7.5 (-113)
7.5 (-107)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)