St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick & Preview – 5/27/2024

St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals

May 27, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 27, 2024
  • Venue: Great American Ball Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Lance Lynn - Cardinals
    • Nick Lodolo - Reds

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Cardinals 115, Reds -140
Runline: Cardinals 1.5 -165, Reds -1.5 145
Over/Under Total: 9.5 -110

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
St. Louis Cardinals - 44% St. Louis Cardinals - 47.58%
Cincinnati Reds - 56% Cincinnati Reds - 52.42%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds will face off against the St. Louis Cardinals on May 27, 2024, at Great American Ball Park. This National League Central matchup features the Reds, who are having a tough season with a record of 23-30, and the Cardinals, who are performing below average with a record of 24-26.

On the mound, the Reds are projected to start left-handed pitcher Nick Lodolo, who has been one of the best starting pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Lodolo has started six games this year, with a win/loss record of 3-2 and an impressive ERA of 3.34. He is expected to pitch around 4.6 innings and strike out 4.8 batters on average in today's game.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, will send right-handed pitcher Lance Lynn to the mound. Lynn has started ten games this season, with a win/loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 3.68. However, his 4.27 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this year and may not perform as well going forward. Lynn is projected to pitch around 5.5 innings and strike out 5.4 batters on average today.

In terms of offense, the Reds rank as the 27th best in MLB this season, while the Cardinals rank 21st. The Reds have the advantage in team stolen bases, ranking first in the league, while the Cardinals have a higher batting average and rank fifth in team home runs.

Overall, this game is expected to be a close matchup, with the Reds having the edge in pitching and the Cardinals having a slightly better offense. Keep an eye on the performances of Nick Lodolo and Lance Lynn, as they will play crucial roles in determining the outcome of this game.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Compared to the average pitcher, Lance Lynn has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording an extra 3.0 adjusted pitches each start.

  • Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (29.3) suggests that Paul Goldschmidt has experienced some negative variance this year with his 11.3 actual HR/600.

  • xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

It may be smart to expect better numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 7th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

  • When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo's high utilization rate of his fastball (53.7% this year) is likely dampening his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

  • Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Jonathan India is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Cincinnati Reds batters as a group rank 27th- in baseball for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 7.1% Barrel%.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+7.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 41 games (+5.25 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+6.20 Units / 155% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.73 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.73

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+135
23% STL
-160
77% CIN

Total Pick Consensus

9.5/-118
38% UN
9.5/-102
62% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-148
30% STL
-1.5/+124
70% CIN

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
STL
Team Stats
CIN
4.59
ERA
4.79
.268
Batting Avg Against
.256
1.43
WHIP
1.41
.322
BABIP
.302
8.3%
BB%
9.5%
20.4%
K%
21.8%
69.8%
LOB%
72.5%
.259
Batting Avg
.250
.436
SLG
.415
.770
OPS
.743
.333
OBP
.327
STL
Team Records
CIN
26-22
Home
25-28
27-27
Road
24-25
37-37
vRHP
36-34
16-12
vLHP
13-19
26-31
vs>.500
26-38
27-18
vs<.500
23-15
5-5
Last10
5-5
11-9
Last20
11-9
17-13
Last30
15-15
L. Lynn
N. Lodolo
N/A
Innings
34.1
N/A
GS
7
N/A
W-L
2-1
N/A
ERA
6.29
N/A
K/9
12.32
N/A
BB/9
2.62
N/A
HR/9
2.62
N/A
LOB%
81.1%
N/A
HR/FB%
27.0%
N/A
FIP
5.80
N/A
xFIP
3.78

L. Lynn

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
10/7 HOU
Jr N/A
L1-6 N/A
3.2
6
5
5
4
2
46-76
10/1 DET
Peralta N/A
W8-1 N/A
5
4
1
1
4
1
54-81
9/25 CLE
Morgan N/A
L0-6 N/A
6
7
6
6
6
0
70-105
9/18 TEX
Howard N/A
L1-2 N/A
5.1
6
2
1
5
2
53-83
9/12 BOS
Pivetta N/A
W2-1 N/A
5
2
0
0
9
0
47-70

N. Lodolo

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/24 STL
Wainwright N/A
W4-1 N/A
5.2
5
1
1
7
0
57-79
4/18 SD
Manaea N/A
L1-4 N/A
5
6
3
3
8
2
60-90

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
STL CIN
STL CIN
Consensus
+115
-128
+135
-160
+114
-135
+136
-162
+102
-120
+134
-158
+120
-139
+135
-159
+115
-135
+135
-160
+115
-140
+135
-160
Open
Current
Book
STL CIN
STL CIN
Consensus
+1.5 (-151)
-1.5 (+154)
+1.5 (-151)
-1.5 (+126)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+124)
-1.5 (+152)
+1.5 (-184)
+1.5 (-146)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+132)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+120)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-121)
9.5 (-101)
9.5 (-123)
9.0 (-120)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-120)
9.0 (+100)
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-122)
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-122)
9.0 (-122)
9.0 (+102)
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-122)
9.0 (-120)
9.0 (+100)
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-120)
9.0 (-120)
9.0 (+100)
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-120)