Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 26, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Blue Jays
  • Casey Mize - Tigers

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

On May 26, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will face off against the Toronto Blue Jays at Comerica Park. As the home team, the Tigers will look to improve their below-average season record of 25-27, while the Blue Jays aim to turn around their own below-average season with a record of 23-28. This American League matchup promises an exciting game between two teams striving to climb the standings.

The Tigers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Casey Mize, who has had an average season so far. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Mize ranks as the #116 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. He has started nine games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 4.57. However, his 3.80 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

Opposing Mize on the mound will be the Blue Jays' left-handed pitcher Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi has had an excellent season thus far, ranking as the #63 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings. He has started ten games, with a win/loss record of 2-4 and an impressive ERA of 2.64. However, his 3.26 SIERA indicates that he may have been lucky and could see a regression in his performance.

The Tigers offense has struggled this season, ranking as the #24 best in MLB. They have particularly struggled in team batting average (#27), home runs (#27), and stolen bases (#28). In contrast, the Blue Jays offense ranks as the #19 best in MLB, with notable strengths in team batting average (#5) and an average ranking in home runs (#15) and stolen bases (#19).

Both teams have average-ranked bullpens, with the Tigers ranking #11 and the Blue Jays ranking #15 according to our Power Rankings. This suggests that the game could be a close one, as reflected in the current moneyline odds.

Looking at the recent performances of the teams' best hitters, the Tigers' Kerry Carpenter has been their standout player over the last seven games. He has recorded 7 hits, 5 runs, 7 RBIs, and 3 home runs, with a batting average of .389 and an impressive OPS of 1.510. On the other side, the Blue Jays' Bo Bichette has been their top performer over the last week, accumulating 11 hits, 5 RBIs, and 1 home run, with a batting average of .393 and an OPS of 1.000.

With a game total of 8.0 runs, the betting markets expect an average-scoring game. The Tigers' current moneyline is set at +110, indicating a 46% implied win probability, while the Blue Jays' moneyline is -130, suggesting a 54% implied win probability.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Out of all starters, Yusei Kikuchi's fastball velocity of 94.9 mph ranks in the 86th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ernie Clement's speed has gotten better this season. His 28.36 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.01 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 5th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Casey Mize will ring up an average of 17.1 outs in this outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

In terms of his batting average, Javier Baez has experienced some negative variance this year. His .207 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .282.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Jake Rogers, the Tigers's expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 38 games (+4.55 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.45 Units / 23% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+9.80 Units / 13% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.67 vs Detroit Tigers 4.41

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