Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Prediction & Picks 7/10/2024

Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins

Jul 10, 2024

Houston Astros

Houston Astros
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Details

  • Date: July 10, 2024
  • Venue: Minute Maid Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Bryan Hoeing - Marlins
    • Framber Valdez - Astros

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Marlins 215, Astros -255
Runline: Marlins 1.5 100, Astros -1.5 -120
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Miami Marlins - 31% Miami Marlins - 34.57%
Houston Astros - 69% Houston Astros - 65.43%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros, currently holding a 47-44 record, are set to host the struggling Miami Marlins (32-59) at Minute Maid Park on July 10, 2024. This interleague matchup marks the second game of the series, with Houston having taken the first game convincingly. The Astros are having an above-average season, while the Marlins are floundering near the bottom of the standings.

Houston will send Framber Valdez to the mound, who ranks as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Valdez, a left-handed pitcher, has been reliable this season, with projections showing he averages 6.5 innings per start, allowing 2.3 earned runs, striking out 5.6 batters, and issuing 1.7 walks. Despite the high walk and hit projections, Valdez's ability to limit runs should be a key factor against a weak Marlins offense.

Miami counters with Bryan Hoeing, a right-hander who has struggled mightily this season. The projections are not kind to Hoeing, indicating he'll likely pitch only 4.4 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs. His strikeout rate is low at just 3.0 per game, and he’s projected to allow 4.9 hits and 1.2 walks. With Houston's offense ranking 1st in team batting average and 9th in home runs, Hoeing faces a daunting challenge.

Offensively, the Astros are led by Alex Bregman, who has been on fire over the past week with a .333 batting average, 1.054 OPS, 2 home runs, and 7 RBIs in 6 games. The Marlins' bright spot has been Dane Myers, who boasts a .455 batting average and a 1.357 OPS over his last 4 games.

With the Astros being heavy favorites and a moneyline of -250, their implied win probability sits at 69%. The Marlins, big underdogs with a moneyline of +210, have an implied win probability of just 31%. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, suggesting an average scoring affair. Given the disparity in team performance and pitching matchups, Houston looks poised to continue their winning ways against Miami.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bryan Hoeing to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.

  • A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Emmanuel Rivera has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.

  • The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jake Burger pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez's higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (53 compared to 46.9% last year) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

  • Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Chas McCormick's average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 86.7-mph seasonal average has dropped to 76.5-mph in the last 7 days.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Houston Astros have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Loperfido, Jon Singleton, Chas McCormick).

  • Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games (+13.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 36 away games (+15.20 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Jazz Chisholm has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 43 games (+8.50 Units / 15% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.53 vs Houston Astros 4.67

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+190
7% MIA
-227
93% HOU

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-105
1% UN
8.0/-115
99% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-108
2% MIA
-1.5/-112
98% HOU

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
MIA
Team Stats
HOU
4.18
ERA
3.79
.242
Batting Avg Against
.237
1.28
WHIP
1.26
.302
BABIP
.289
8.3%
BB%
8.7%
25.2%
K%
24.0%
72.5%
LOB%
75.3%
.262
Batting Avg
.251
.402
SLG
.417
.719
OPS
.740
.317
OBP
.324
MIA
Team Records
HOU
20-33
Home
28-21
15-32
Road
24-27
28-36
vRHP
39-32
7-29
vLHP
13-16
22-43
vs>.500
18-26
13-22
vs<.500
34-22
3-7
Last10
6-4
7-13
Last20
12-8
12-18
Last30
20-10
B. Hoeing
F. Valdez
45.1
Innings
149.2
6
GS
23
1-2
W-L
9-8
4.57
ERA
3.31
6.95
K/9
8.90
3.57
BB/9
2.16
1.39
HR/9
0.90
72.8%
LOB%
72.8%
12.5%
HR/FB%
14.2%
4.99
FIP
3.44
5.00
xFIP
3.29
.249
AVG
.225
18.2%
K%
24.6%
9.4%
BB%
6.0%
4.84
SIERA
3.57

B. Hoeing

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

F. Valdez

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/1 TOR
Gausman N/A
L2-3 N/A
6.1
2
3
3
2
2
61-101
4/25 TEX
Dunning N/A
L2-6 N/A
6
4
1
0
5
2
60-97
4/19 LAA
Sandoval N/A
L2-7 N/A
4.1
8
6
6
3
4
50-80
4/13 ARI
Kelly N/A
L2-3 N/A
3
2
1
1
3
5
40-75
4/7 LAA
Ohtani N/A
W3-1 N/A
6.2
2
0
0
6
1
54-84

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
MIA HOU
MIA HOU
Consensus
+225
-270
+190
-227
+220
-270
+190
-230
+235
-290
+198
-240
+200
-240
+180
-220
+215
-267
+205
-250
+220
-275
+180
-225
Open
Current
Book
MIA HOU
MIA HOU
Consensus
+1.5 (+107)
-1.5 (-128)
+1.5 (-112)
-1.5 (-109)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-120)
+1.5 (-108)
-1.5 (-112)
+1.5 (+106)
-1.5 (-128)
+1.5 (-106)
-1.5 (-113)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (-113)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (-103)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-120)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-120)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-120)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-112)
8.0 (-108)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.5 (-104)
8.5 (-117)
8.0 (-112)
8.0 (-108)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)