Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Picks 7/11/2024

Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs

Jul 11, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles Details

  • Date: July 11, 2024
  • Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Justin Steele - Cubs
    • Albert Suarez - Orioles


Betting Odds

Moneyline:Cubs 110, Orioles -130
Runline:Cubs 1.5 -185, Orioles -1.5 160
Over/Under Total:8.5 -110


Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:Projected Win %:
Chicago Cubs - 46%Chicago Cubs - 50.69%
Baltimore Orioles - 54%Baltimore Orioles - 49.31%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles and the Chicago Cubs are set to clash on July 11, 2024, in the third game of their series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Baltimore has been having a stellar season with a 57-35 record, while Chicago has struggled, sitting at 44-49. This interleague matchup features contrasting performances from both teams, with the Orioles aiming to continue their strong run and the Cubs hoping to turn their season around.

On the mound for Baltimore will be right-handed pitcher Albert Suarez, who has a 5-2 record and an excellent 2.48 ERA this season. However, his 4.63 xFIP suggests that he might have been lucky and could face some regression. Suarez is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 5.5 hits, and 1.5 walks, while striking out 4.4 batters on average.

Opposing Suarez will be Chicago's left-handed ace, Justin Steele. Steele has a 1-3 record with an impressive 2.95 ERA. His 3.51 xFIP indicates he has also benefited from some good fortune. Steele is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, 5.9 hits, and 1.6 walks, while striking out 5.4 batters on average.

Baltimore's offense, ranked 2nd in MLB by advanced metrics, is a force to be reckoned with. They lead the league in home runs and are 5th in team batting average. Austin Hays has been on fire, hitting .500 with a 1.295 OPS over the last week. In contrast, the Cubs' offense ranks 19th and has struggled, particularly in batting average (24th) and home runs (23rd). Ian Happ has been a bright spot, hitting .429 with three home runs and 11 RBIs in the past week.

With the Orioles' potent offense and Suarez's solid, albeit potentially overperforming, season, Baltimore has a slight edge. The betting markets reflect this, with the Orioles' moneyline at -130, implying a 54% win probability. The Cubs' moneyline at +110 implies a 46% chance. Baltimore's high implied team total of 4.45 runs underscores their offensive prowess ( ?ిల్ల ` Â –


Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Justin Steele has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 64.4% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.

  • Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.


Dansby Swanson has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.8-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 90.2-mph EV.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.


The Chicago Cubs have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Christopher Morel).

  • Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts


Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The Baltimore Orioles infield defense profiles as the 3rd-best out of every team in action today.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.


When it comes to his home runs, Gunnar Henderson has had some very good luck this year. His 39.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 26.2.

  • xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.


Baltimore's 90.1-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in MLB: #1 overall.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.


Game Trends

  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 42 of their last 77 games (+13.85 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 65 games (+8.90 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Michael Busch has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 44% ROI)


Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.88 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.52

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+115
27% CHC
-135
73% BAL

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-108
12% UN
8.5/-112
88% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-180
10% CHC
-1.5/+150
90% BAL

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
CHC
Team Stats
BAL
4.22
ERA
4.12
.243
Batting Avg Against
.243
1.29
WHIP
1.28
.289
BABIP
.299
8.3%
BB%
8.3%
22.0%
K%
23.9%
71.1%
LOB%
73.2%
.255
Batting Avg
.251
.419
SLG
.420
.751
OPS
.737
.332
OBP
.318
CHC
Team Records
BAL
26-23
Home
30-22
22-30
Road
30-17
42-40
vRHP
44-26
6-13
vLHP
16-13
33-39
vs>.500
37-25
15-14
vs<.500
23-14
6-4
Last10
4-6
11-9
Last20
11-9
14-16
Last30
15-15
J. Steele
A. Suárez
126.0
Innings
N/A
22
GS
N/A
13-3
W-L
N/A
2.79
ERA
N/A
8.57
K/9
N/A
2.00
BB/9
N/A
0.71
HR/9
N/A
74.3%
LOB%
N/A
8.6%
HR/FB%
N/A
3.21
FIP
N/A
3.68
xFIP
N/A
.245
AVG
N/A
22.9%
K%
N/A
5.4%
BB%
N/A
3.86
SIERA
N/A

J. Steele

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/30 MIL
Lauer N/A
L1-9 N/A
3
7
4
2
4
1
48-74
4/24 PIT
Brubaker N/A
L3-4 N/A
3
4
3
3
2
4
43-79
4/19 TB
Wisler N/A
L5-6 N/A
2.2
3
4
4
1
3
25-48
4/14 COL
Freeland N/A
W5-2 N/A
4.1
5
2
2
4
2
47-80
4/9 MIL
Woodruff N/A
W9-0 N/A
5
4
0
0
5
1
46-77

A. Suárez

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
CHC BAL
CHC BAL
Consensus
+110
-130
+115
-135
+110
-130
+114
-135
+112
-132
+114
-134
+112
-132
+115
-136
+110
-130
+122
-145
+110
-135
+115
-135
Open
Current
Book
CHC BAL
CHC BAL
Consensus
+1.5 (-181)
-1.5 (+154)
+1.5 (-181)
-1.5 (+152)
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+154)
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+146)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+145)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-120)
8.5 (-113)
8.5 (-108)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-120)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (-108)
9.0 (-105)
9.0 (-115)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (-108)
9.0 (-106)
9.0 (-114)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-106)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-120)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-120)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)