Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays Pick For 6/9/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: June 9, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grayson Rodriguez - Orioles
  • Zack Littell - Rays

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles prepare for their matchup on June 9, 2024, at Tropicana Field, fans can expect a compelling American League East showdown. The Rays, sitting at 31-33, are having a below-average season, while the Orioles boast an impressive 41-22 record, showcasing their dominance this year. This game is the third in the series, with the Orioles looking to capitalize on their strong season.

The Rays will send Zack Littell to the mound. Littell, a right-handed pitcher, holds a 2-3 record with a solid 3.56 ERA across 12 starts this year. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Littell is the 110th best starting pitcher in MLB, which is considered average. Littell projects to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, 5.4 hits, and 1.1 walks on average today—all average projections. His low walk rate (3.8 BB%) could be a disadvantage against the Orioles, who rank 3rd in MLB for least walks.

The Orioles counter with Grayson Rodriguez, another right-hander, who has been outstanding this season with a 6-2 record and a 3.28 ERA. Ranked 55th among starting pitchers, Rodriguez is considered good. He projects to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, 4.5 hits, and 1.9 walks on average today. Despite his strong numbers, his 3.92 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this season, indicating potential regression.

Offensively, the Orioles have a significant edge. They rank 4th in MLB overall, 8th in batting average, 1st in home runs, and 12th in stolen bases. Conversely, the Rays rank 23rd overall, 18th in batting average, 30th in home runs, but 6th in stolen bases. While the Rays struggle with power, they excel on the base paths.

From a betting perspective, the Orioles are favored with a moneyline of -140, implying a 56% win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Orioles' win probability at 53%, a close game. The Rays, with a moneyline of +115, have an implied win probability of 44%, but the projections give them a slightly better chance at 47%. Given these numbers, the value might be on the Rays.

In their most recent games, the Rays and Orioles both faced different opponents, making it crucial to watch how they adjust in this matchup. Randy Arozarena has been the Rays' standout hitter over the last week, batting .357 with a 1.071 OPS. For the Orioles, Ramon Urias has been scorching hot, hitting .444 with a 1.545 OPS and a home run over the last week.

This game promises to be a tightly contested affair, with both teams having specific strengths and weaknesses that could tip the scales. Keep an eye on how the Rays' base-stealing prowess matches up against the Orioles' power-hitting capabilities.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Grayson Rodriguez has recorded 17.3 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

The Baltimore Orioles have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell's four-seamer utilization has fallen by 6.5% from last season to this one (27.9% to 21.4%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Richie Palacios has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Tampa Bay Rays batters jointly rank near the top of MLB since the start of last season (5th-) as it relates to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+10.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 53 games (+15.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 70% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.47 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.84

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.