As the college football regular season winds down, the Michigan State Spartans travel to Iowa City to take on the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday. Iowa is looking to send its seniors off with a strong finish at home. Michigan State is still chasing its first Big Ten win of the season and will try to spoil senior day for the Hawkeyes. Before kickoff from Iowa, you can continue reading to get my Michigan State vs Iowa prediction for Saturday afternoon.
Our Michigan State vs Iowa Pick
- Pick: Over 42.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Get more college football picks before Saturday’s action!
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Michigan State Spartans vs Iowa Hawkeyes
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 22, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
- Broadcast: FS1
Key Storylines
Iowa comes into this game reeling from back-to-back losses to Oregon and USC, but they have strong motivation ahead of this game. It’s Senior Day at Kinnick, and the Hawkeyes want to close their home schedule on a high note. Their defense has consistently been a strength, and facing a Michigan State offense that has struggled in the trenches gives Iowa a clear path to dominate this matchup.
Michigan State is in a tough spot. The Spartans are 3–7 overall and 0–7 in Big Ten play, desperately needing a win to salvage some dignity. But their offensive struggles and the stout defense of the Hawkeyes make this a steep uphill climb, especially on the road. Michigan State is already unable to make it to bowl eligibility and they are simply playing for pride at this point.
Quarterback Play
Mark Gronowski is the starting quarterback for Iowa. He’s thrown for 1,216 yards with 6 touchdowns against 5 interceptions. His rushing threat is also a factor, with 13 rushing touchdowns on the year. His dual-threat ability helps keep defenses off balance and is central to Iowa’s success on offense.
Michigan State’s signal-caller is Aidan Chiles, who has passed for 1,392 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He is completing around 63% of his throws. But Chiles has limited support in the running game, while the offensive line has struggled to keep him clean.
Betting Trends
- Iowa is 7-2-1 against the spread going into this matchup.
- Michigan State is 5-5 against the spread through their first 10 games.
- The under has cashed in 6 of Iowa’s first 10 games.
- Michigan State has gone over the total in 6 of their first 10 outings.
Michigan State vs Iowa Model Projection
- Score Projection: Iowa 31 – Michigan State 15
- Win Probability: Iowa 88%, Michigan State 12%
Final Thoughts
My best bet for this contest is for the over to cash between the Spartans and Hawkeyes. Iowa should be able to move the ball effectively in this game against a struggling Michigan State team. And while Michigan State should lose by double-digits here, they will do just enough scoring of their own to push this game over the total. I’ll play the over here in the final home game of the year for the Hawkeyes.
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