As the final weekend of the regular season draws near, college football bettors will have their eyes on a Big 12 matchup between the Baylor Bears and Arizona Wildcats on Saturday. With bowl eligibility on the line for Baylor and Arizona aiming to build improve its bowl assignment in front of its home fans, there’s plenty at stake for both teams. Here, I break down this Big 12 contest and bring you my Baylor vs Arizona prediction for Saturday’s game.
Our Baylor vs Arizona Pick
- Pick: Over 62.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Baylor Bears vs Arizona Wildcats
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 22, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
- Broadcast: TNT
Key Storylines
The passing attacks for these teams will be the biggest story in this game. Baylor’s offense has thrived through the air all season. Yet Arizona’s defense ranks among the strongest units in the Big 12, especially in stopping high-volume passing attacks. Arizona also has a dangerous passing game with Noah Fifita as the quarterback. But the deeper concern for Baylor is its run defense, which has been inconsistent and vulnerable all season long, opening a clear path for Arizona’s offense to move the ball in a number of ways.
Arizona arrives with three straight wins and has been especially effective at home. Baylor’s motivation is to get to bowl season. The Bears are sitting one win from bowl eligibility and they have two chances left to get their sixth win. Baylor has dropped three of its last four games and have to shake off their recent struggles to see a bowl game in the near future.
Quarterback Play
Baylor – Sawyer Robertson: Robertson is one of the nation’s top quarterbacks this season from a statistical standpoint. He has surpassed 3,200 yards with 29 touchdowns. He is capable of being the best player on the field in any game, but he has to avoid turning the ball over to live up to that potential
Arizona – Noah Fifita: Fifita has delivered steady production with 2,494 yards, 24 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions. His accuracy and decision-making give Arizona an offense capable of making explosive plays and exploiting Baylor’s defensive gaps.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Arizona is 6-4 against the spread this season.
- Baylor is 2-8 against the spread going into this contest.
- The under has cashed in 6 of Arizona’s first 8 games.
- The over is 6-4 in Baylor’s games so far this year.
- This is the first meeting between the programs since 1992.
Baylor vs Arizona Model Projection
Score Projection: Arizona 38 – Baylor 31
Win Probability: Arizona 59%, Baylor 41%
Final Thoughts
My best bet for this contest is for the over to cash at a robust 62.5 points. Both teams have stars at the quarterback position this season. We should see both Robertson and Fifita show out in this game and give us a high-scoring game that is both entertaining and enough to get the over to cash in Arizona.
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