Fight Odds
Ricky Simon -280 vs Raphael Assuncao
Fight is at 135 lbs and is +120 to end inside the distance.
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Ricky Simon vs Raphael Assuncao Betting Preview
Raphael Assuncao has had quite a solid career, but 39 years old at bantamweight is simply ancient for a lower weight class. He has dropped three straight fights, with his last win coming back in 2018. Assuncao has been finished in two of his last three losses, with the most recent being an extremely ugly knock out at the hands of Cody Garbrandt. He is still a solid fighter, but should certainly be looking for matchups with fighters also well past their prime. He is going to wilt and fold under the wrestling pace and pressure of Ricky Simon.
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Ricky Simon keeps an insanely high pace and wrestles relentlessly. The only other fighter in the weight class that we can put in his category in that regard is Merab Dvalishvilli. After starting his UFC career with four straight wins, he had a hiccup with a pair of losses, but ahs since righted the ship with a three fight winning streak. He has secured at least six takedowns in each of his last four fights. While his control is not perfect early on in fights, his pace and relentless pressure leads him to mat returning opponents until they break. That will be the case against his aged opponent in this fight. While Assuncao has seen it all, he has never faced a wrestler at this level that will be so relentless. It is something Assuncao could have likely dealt with back in his prime, but not at this juncture of his career.
What To Bet
Simon will start the takedown streak early and often. Assuncao is a sound enough grappler, but not one that truly threatens off his back. He will be able to return to his feet multiple times, but will be directly mat returned. If this fight has large portions of standup exchanges for whatever reason, it is much more likely to be close. I really don’t believe that will be the case. The flat line on Simon is not the friendliest at -280, but the flat line will be our avenue of attack. He has an insanely clear path to victory.