Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington Odds
Kamaru Usman -315 vs Colby Covington
Fight is five rounds at 170 lbs and the fight is -150 to end inside the distance.
For the welterweight championship.
Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington Betting Preview
This rematch is nearly two years in the making. These two fighters put on a truly amazing show in the original. Kamaru Usman ultimately won via fifth round KO, but it was certainly not without controversy. The finishing sequence saw Covington wrestling after being dropped. He was aware and still intelligently defending himself, and the finishing shots were landing to the back of the head. Assuming that fifth round finished the same way, I would have scored the round 10-8 for Usman, and my card would have been a 47-47 draw. Rounds 1, 2 and 4 went to Colby Covington. Needless to say, any fighter being -315 in the encore is truly egregious.
Usman has now won 14 straight fights in the UFC, with the last five being title fights. There is absolutely nothing to take away from Usman, but if we were trying to do so for argument’s sake, the championship competition outside of Covington has been lacking. Two of the wins were against great but not elite Jorge Masvidal. One was against since cut Tyron Woodley, and the other was against Gilbert Burns. Burns is also very, very good, but never had the striking chops to hang with Usman. Usman has been focused more on power than volume recently, but he did land heavy on Covington in the first fight. He ultimately came out of that fight with a volume edge, but that was mainly accumulated in the finishing sequence in the fifth round.
Colby Covington has only had one fight since the championship loss to Usman. That was an utter domination of Tyron Woodley that simply set up this rematch. Covington will continue to bring some of the best cardio and activity in MMA to this fight. While he will continue to be at a power disadvantage, he will continue to bring more volume to the table. Covington made a huge mistake in the third round of the first fight. He had his jaw broken by an Usman left and that certainly played a huge part in the finish a couple rounds later. He will need to avoid taking that massive shot, as he is generally adept at. Covington himself was landing clean on Usman and, as mentioned, I feel he won three of the first four rounds.
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This fight is going to be another classic, as we watch the two clear cut best welterweights on the planet bang it out again. It is truly a very close fight, so the betting line is completely nonsensical. Covington was within a round of taking the first fight, and if not for the in fight injury, he very well may have. Covington is the only fighter that has a chance of winning against the current version of Usman, and that chance is very real. When we are getting +245 on such an occurrence, our money will go in that direction every single time.
Betting Pick: Covington +250
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