The Denver Nuggets (21-8) put their seven-game winning streak on the line when they take on the New Orleans Pelicans (8-23) at Pepsi Center. The game will air on ESPN at 10:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 25, 2019.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 220 points with Denver set as a 10-point favorite.
New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
The Pelicans will be hoping for similar success after beating the Portland Trail Blazers in their last matchup, 102-94, as 6-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (196) were well under the projected point total of 230. New Orleans won the rebounding battle. The Pelicans had more offensive rebounds (13 vs. eight), defensive rebounds (42 vs. 40) and total rebounds (55 vs. 48). Brandon Ingram played a pivotal role for New Orleans with 19 points, 11 rebounds and five assists.
In the Nuggets’ last game, they barely escaped the Phoenix Suns, 113-111, but were unable to cover as 2.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (224) finished over the O/U total of 219. Denver made 15 of their 28 three pointers (53.6 percent). Phoenix, meanwhile, forced the Nuggets into a turnover percentage of 19.9 (above their season average of 11.6). With 22 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists, Denver’s Nikola Jokic led the way with his fifth triple-double this season.
Denver should have the edge on the defensive side of the ball. The Nuggets rank fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.498), while New Orleans is 19th in effective field goal percentage (0.521).
New Orleans comes into the contest with records of 8-23 straight up (SU) and 10-19-2 against the spread (ATS). Of the Pelicans’ 31 games, 17 have finished under the projected point total.
Denver is 21-8 SU, but they have a hard time covering the spread (11-14-4 ATS). Of the Nuggets’ 29 games, 19 have finished under the projected point total.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Jahlil Okafor scored a game-high 26 points in the first game, in which the Pelicans, who were 4-point underdogs, defeated the Nuggets 122-107. He also recorded five rebounds. The game finished with a total of 229 points, which was 6 points above the projected point total of 223 points. Getting to the free throw line was one of New Orleans’ largest advantages. They had 32 free throw attempts, while Denver had just 16.
Pelicans at Nuggets ATS Pick
Prediction: ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Betting Trends
Denver ranks third in second chance points allowed per game (11.6) while New Orleans ranks 23rd (14.1).
Denver averages 48.2 points in the paint per game, which ranks 11th in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 27th in points allowed in the paint per game (51.2).
Denver is 6-8-2 ATS at home, while New Orleans is 5-9-2 ATS on the road.
In its last five contests, New Orleans is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Denver is 1-3-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Pelicans’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 1.2, down from 6.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 114.8 points per game (7.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 104.8 points per game (2.7 above their season average).