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Washington Commanders Betting Preview
The Washington Commanders finished at 4-13 last year, despite there being a ton of optimism surrounding the team going into the 2023 season. This year, the Commanders will have a new starting quarterback, as Sam Howell is gone and Jayden Daniels has arrived. Here, we look at the new-look Commanders offense in our 2024 Commanders season preview and we make our pick in the season win total market for this squad.
2024 Washington Commanders Over/Under Season Win Total Odds
| Sportsbook | Over/Under Wins |
|---|---|
| Caesars Sportsbook | 6.5 |
| BetMGM | 6.5 |
Washington Commanders Futures Betting Odds
Standings Data
| 2023 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|
| Actual Record | 4-13 | 8-8-1 |
| Point Differential | -189 | -22 |
| ATS W/L | 6-10-1 | 8-8-1 |
| Over/Under Record | 10-7 | 5-11-1 |
| Record in Division Games | 0-6 | 2-3-1 |
Washington Commanders Picks, Predictions & Betting News
Offseason Transactions
Key Additions: Marcus Mariota, Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz, Tyler Biadasz, Dante Fowler Jr., Bobby Wagner, Jeremy Chinn, Jayden Daniels
Key Departures: Jacoby Brissett, Sam Howell, Antonio Gibson, Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas, Kendall Fuller, Joey Slye
The big story for the Commanders this offseason was the series of moves they made at the quarterback position. In ditching Sam Howell so soon and drafting Jayden Daniels, more growing pains will be expected at the most important position on the field, thanks to a lack of experience at this level of competition. Bringing Austin Ekeler in as a primary back will help Daniels, but we haven’t seen Daniels win at the highest levels enough yet to know that this will pan out for Washington either.
Washington Commanders Offensive Stats
| 2023 (Rank) | 2022 (Rank) | |
|---|---|---|
| Yards Per Play | 5.0 (T-22nd) | 4.9 (T-27th) |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4.4 (T-7th) | 4.0 (T-27th) |
| Yards Per Pass Attempt | 6.6 (T-25th) | 6.8 (T-21st) |
| Points Per Game | 19.4 (T-24th) | 18.9 (24th) |
| Turnovers | 32 (29th) | 23 (T-17th) |
Offensively, the Washington Commanders went through a lot last year. They tried and failed to get things going with Sam Howell, as they were in the bottom-10 in the league in scoring and per-play passing stats. Washington was not terrible running the football on a per-play basis last season, something that should continue with Austin Ekeler in the fold at running back. But asking an unproven Jayden Daniels or an ineffective Marcus Mariota to fix the passing attack might not work for this group.
Washington Commanders Defensive Stats
| 2023 (Rank) | 2022 (Rank) | |
|---|---|---|
| Yards Per Play Allowed | 5.9 (31st) | 5.2 (T-9th) |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt Allowed | 4.5 (T-25th) | 4.4 (T-15th) |
| Yards Per Pass Attempt Allowed | 7.5 (31st) | 6.3 (T-10th) |
| Points Per Game Allowed | 30.5 (32nd) | 20.2 (T-7th) |
| Takeaways | 18 (T-23rd) | 18 (26th) |
Washington was awful defensively in 2023 and a lot of that had to do with the regression of their pass rush. As it turns out, trading away your most impactful pass rushers to tank away your season does not make it easier to get after opposing quarterbacks. Dante Fowler Jr. and Dorrance Armstrong have been brought in to try and remedy that situation but there is no telling what we will get from this group on defense in 2024 and if things will get better.
Positives & Negatives
The biggest positive for the Commanders going into 2024 is there is once again cause for optimism. With a young quarterback and an established new running back, there is at least the potential for this team to do some good things on the offensive side of the ball. Meanwhile, they have at least attempted to repair what was a dreadful defense last season.
But this is the Washington Commanders we’re talking about here. This franchise is cursed to its core, with the stench of Daniel Snyder still lingering around it though he is no longer with the organization. We have no proof that things will improve for this team this year and no reason to believe that they will given the recent history of this franchise.
2024 Washington Commanders Win Total Prediction: Under 6.5 Wins
This one could be close, but Washington should stay under the 6.5 win total that has been set for them going into this season. This is not exactly a franchise with a history of successful quarterback development under its belt and we don’t have much reason to believe that the defense will make life measurably easier on Jayden Daniels either. Washington should avoid another 0-6 run in the NFC East thanks to the presence of the New York Giants, but it could be another long season in the shadow of Washington D.C.
