Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Oct 3, 2024

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends
  • Props

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Pick & Preview – 10/3/2024

Buccaneers vs Falcons Betting Odds

Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.5, Atlanta Falcons -1.5
Over/Under: 43.5
Moneyline: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 100, Atlanta Falcons -120

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 48% Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 37%
Atlanta Falcons - 52% Atlanta Falcons - 63%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

Thursday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) and Atlanta Falcons (2-2). Oddsmakers peg the Falcons as the slight favorite with an implied win probablity of 52%, leaving the Buccaneers with a 48% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Falcons -1.5 with a Game Total of 43.5.

Tampa Bay's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #26 in the league while allowing 369 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #1-most yards per carry: 5.48. The Buccaneers linebackers have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #2-worst in the NFL by this measure. This represents a particular disadvantage for Tampa Bay given that the Falcons have excelled in the run game this year, accumulating 4.6 yards per carry (#9-best in the league). In terms of their offense, the Buccaneers have ranked #9 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 252 yards per game (#4 in football). On the ground they've ranked #20 with 4.01 yards per carry.

Atlanta's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #9 in football at 4.6 yards per carry. When it comes to their defense, the Falcons check in at #24 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 206 yards per game against Atlanta this year (#19 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #18 against them with 4.56 yards per ground attempt. This Falcons defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 4.31 yards per target (#4-best in the league). Atlanta's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have caught 75% of their passes, #2-highest in the league.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22.24 vs Atlanta Falcons 25.79

**NOTE: The above stats and rankings are adjusted for context based on sample size and matchup factors. Note that, by design, these stats will not match up with those you find on stat pages and leaderboards around the industry, however are more predictive for ranking stats and for contextualizing the data. Statistics include data from the beginning of the 2023 NFL season to the present time in the 2024 season to allow a more representative sample size.

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Consensus

Spread Pick Consensus

+2.5/-112
74% TB
-2.5/-108
26% ATL

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+114
25% TB
-135
75% ATL

Total Pick Consensus

44.0/-112
20% UN
44.0/-108
80% OV

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Passing
  • Rushing
  • Special Teams

Offense/Defense

TB
Team Stats
ATL
4
G
4
97
PTs
85
24.2
PPG
21.2
1276
YDS
1346
319
YDS/G
336.5
11
TD
7
2.8
TD/G
1.8
43.9
SC%
50.0
7.3
TO%
7.9

Defense/Offense

TB
Team Stats
ATL
4
G
4
78
PTs
75
19.5
PPG
18.8
1341
YDS
1237
335.2
YDS/G
309.2
8
TD
5
2
TD/G
1.2
37.5
SC%
36.8
10.0
TO%
13.2

Offense/Defense

TB
Rushing
ATL
4
G
4
94
ATT
144
384
YDS
582
96.0
Y/G
145.5
4.1
Y/A
4.0
3
TD
4
0.8
TD/G
1

Defense/Offense

TB
Rushing
ATL
4
G
4
105
ATT
90
526
YDS
411
131.5
Y/G
102.8
5.0
Y/A
4.6
7
TD
1
1.8
TD/G
0.2

Offense/Defense

TB
Passing
ATL
91
CMP
94
129
ATT
128
70.5
CMP%
73.4
223
YDS/GM
191
7.6
Y/A
6.2
6.2
NY/A
5.8
2
INT
3
15
SK
4

Defense/Offense

TB
Passing
ATL
95
CMP
77
146
ATT
119
65.1
CMP%
64.7
203.8
YDS/GM
206.5
6.0
Y/A
7.3
5.3
NY/A
6.6
2
INT
4
8
SK
6

Offense/Defense

TB
Special Teams
ATL
3
Punts/Ret
8
31
Punt/Yds
85
10.3
Punt/Y/R
10.6
4
Kick Off/Ret
8
90
Kick Off/Yds
211
22.5
Kick Off/Y/rt
26.4

Defense/Offense

TB
Special Teams
ATL
6
Punts/Ret
5
59
Punt/Yds
51
9.8
Punt/Y/R
10.2
6
Kick Off/Ret
7
152
Kick Off/Yds
173
25.3
Kick Off/Y/rt
24.7

Odds

  • Spread
  • MoneyLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
TB ATL
TB ATL
Consensus
+3.0 (-111)
-3.0 (-105)
+2.5 (-111)
-2.5 (-110)
+3.0 (-112)
-3.0 (-105)
+2.5 (-112)
-2.5 (-108)
+2.5 (-110)
-2.5 (-115)
+2.5 (-110)
-2.5 (-110)
+3.0 (-110)
-3.0 (-110)
+2.5 (-110)
-2.5 (-110)
+3.0 (-110)
-3.0 (-105)
+2.5 (-110)
-2.5 (-110)
+2.5 (-110)
-2.5 (-115)
+2.5 (-110)
-2.5 (-110)
Open
Current
Book
TB ATL
TB ATL
Consensus
+133
-158
+110
-130
+136
-162
+114
-135
+130
-154
+110
-130
+135
-165
+108
-130
+118
-140
+110
-130
+120
-145
+110
-135
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
43.5 (-108)
43.5 (-113)
43.5 (-111)
43.5 (-108)
44.0 (-110)
44.0 (-110)
44.0 (-108)
44.0 (-112)
43.5 (-105)
43.5 (-115)
43.5 (-110)
43.5 (-110)
43.5 (-110)
43.5 (-110)
43.5 (-110)
43.5 (-110)
43.5 (-110)
43.5 (-110)
43.5 (-115)
43.5 (-105)
42.5 (-110)
42.5 (-110)
43.5 (-115)
43.5 (-105)