Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Pick & Preview – 10/3/2024

Buccaneers vs Falcons Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

Thursday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) and Atlanta Falcons (2-2). Oddsmakers peg the Falcons as the slight favorite with an implied win probablity of 52%, leaving the Buccaneers with a 48% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Falcons -1.5 with a Game Total of 43.5.

Tampa Bay's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #26 in the league while allowing 369 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #1-most yards per carry: 5.48. The Buccaneers linebackers have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #2-worst in the NFL by this measure. This represents a particular disadvantage for Tampa Bay given that the Falcons have excelled in the run game this year, accumulating 4.6 yards per carry (#9-best in the league). In terms of their offense, the Buccaneers have ranked #9 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 252 yards per game (#4 in football). On the ground they've ranked #20 with 4.01 yards per carry.

Atlanta's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #9 in football at 4.6 yards per carry. When it comes to their defense, the Falcons check in at #24 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 206 yards per game against Atlanta this year (#19 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #18 against them with 4.56 yards per ground attempt. This Falcons defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 4.31 yards per target (#4-best in the league). Atlanta's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have caught 75% of their passes, #2-highest in the league.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22.24 vs Atlanta Falcons 25.79

**NOTE: The above stats and rankings are adjusted for context based on sample size and matchup factors. Note that, by design, these stats will not match up with those you find on stat pages and leaderboards around the industry, however are more predictive for ranking stats and for contextualizing the data. Statistics include data from the beginning of the 2023 NFL season to the present time in the 2024 season to allow a more representative sample size.

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