Super Bowl Prop Bets
The Super Bowl marks the biggest prop betting event of the year. From the length of the national anthem, to the coin flip to the color of the Gatorade dumped on the winning the winning coach, the Super Bowl brings prop betting opportunity like no other event. You will find different ways to attack the Super Bowl in this piece. We will discuss the best prop bets to attack. We will discuss the worst prop bets to steer clear of. To leave no stone unturned, we will go through every type of bet available. What’s best, we will show you how to get the absolute most out of your money. You will find all of the best promo offers right here.
Be sure to check back throughout the week as there will be even more added recommended bets.
Many who do not even consider themselves to be gamblers might find themselves making a prop bet on the coin toss. If not the coin toss, one of the countless other available options. But speaking of the coin toss, we get a true odds opportunity on that specific outcome. Caesars is offering true odds for the coin toss. Meaning, that 50/50 outcome is set at +100 for both sides. There is no juice taken for a losing bet on either side.
Make sure you get all the way to the bottom for the best prop of the entire game.
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You can take that true odds outcome and take advantage of the fantastic sign up bonus Caesars is offering. If handicapping other outcomes is not your favorite thing, you can get true odds with a huge sign up bonus poured on top of it.
Game Flow Props
There are countless betting opportunities on the game itself. From the first score to the last score and everything in between. In this section we will break down which of these bring attractive value and likelihood. We will also look at a few to stay away from.
First Score
There are props for which team scores first, the team’s exact type of first score and specific player to score first.
The first thing we will look at is which of these bets are best to stay away from. Namely, those are which team to score first and the type of score for that team.
The odds on the first scoring play are as follows for each team, according to Caesars:
LAR: Touchdown +150, Field Goal +400, Safety +4500
CIN: Touchdown +210, Field Goal +400, Safety +4500
What we need to know to understand why these lines are not advantageous is the average outcome of NFL drives. In 2021, drives ended with scoring plays at the following rates: Touchdown 23%, field goal 14.8%, safety 0.1% This means drives ended in a touchdown 1 in 4.35 times. Field goal ending drives were 1 in 6.76. Safety ending drives were 1 in 1000.
It is easy to convert those latter numbers to the type of return needed to bring value. For a touchdown, we would want to see +400 or better. For a field goal we would want to be close to +700, and for a safety we would want to see +10000. That is before considering needing to pick the correct team to score in addition! Stay away from this type of prop bet!
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First Player To Score
While the team outcomes are not at all attractive to wager on, there is better value to be found on attempting to identify the player to score first. This value is never going to be on a place kicker. In fact, the line for the first score of the game to be a Rams field goal (+400) is even better than for Matt Gay, the Rams kicker to be the first scorer (+375). Look out for these pitfalls on lines that can be different for the exact same outcome.
Now, we know we are avoiding kickers for the first score, but who should we look at? Generally speaking, we want to find longer shots with real viability for this type of wager. I know that sounds like it is not the type of thing that would be readily available, but the odds might be surprising to you.
Bengals
Let’s just compare two players to start this exercise. Both from the Bengals. Joe Mixon +1000 vs Jamarr Chase +900. Mixon lead the Bengals in scoring in 2021, accounting for 16 of their 48 offensive touchdowns (33%). Chase was second on the team with 13 of 48 (27%). Especially considering that Chase will be in the coverage of Jalen Ramsey for at least a portion of the game, I have difficulty finding any value at all in Chase, but see plenty in Mixon.
Moving down the list a bit, the only other players to score more than two touchdowns for the Bengals in 2021 were Tee Higgins 6 (13%), CJ Uzomah 5 (10%) and Tyler Boyd 5 (10%).
Now consider the odds on these three players are considerably different, and it becomes more clear that value does in fact present itself. The player odds are Higgins +1500, Boyd +2200 and Uzomah +2500.
Clearly Uzomah is the greatest value compared to expectation. Additionally Uzomah was utilized as a pass catcher far more in the playoffs than in the regular season. He was also the first scorer in the Bengals playoff game against the Raiders. Note: He is a player we need to check back on later in the week so we have real expectation for him to play. He is dealing with an injury but reports are he is more likely than not to play.
On the Bengals side, Uzomah and Mixon bring the greatest value to score first.
Rams
On the Rams side, we do not find any value in comparison to that of the Bengals side. Of the Rams 51 offensive touchdowns in 2021, Cooper Kupp accounted for 16 (31%). No other player accounted for more than eight. Additionally the Rams seven players who scored at least five touchdowns, so the spread is much more difficult to pinpoint for that team.
Let’s take a moment to compare Cooper Kupp to Joe Mixon. They scored an identical amount of touchdowns this season, and Mixon scored at a high rate on his own team. Yet, the odds for Kupp to be the first scorer are +650 while you get +1000 on Mixon. Kupp’s notoriety for his all time season is well deserved, but beware of the anti-value land mines out there when placing your bets.
Other Game Flow and Team Props
There is an extremely interesting “first to occur” prop for the game. That is whether a sack or a touchdown will be the first to occur. A sack sits at -105 and a touchdown sits at -125.
This is extremely interesting as Joe Burrow was the most sacked quarterback in the league in 2021. He was sacked 51 times. With the Rams front having a distinct advantage over the Bengals offensive line, this line feels very much like the wrong side is favored. Burrow is quite accurate when throwing it, but is forced to eat sacks more often than any other quarterback. While the sack can happen for either side, ever during a touchdown drive, that would mean the sack comes first.
Take the sack to occur before the touchdown at -105.
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Player Props
The first look at a player prop comes in the form of Joe Burrow’s first pass. Caesar’s has a completion set at -200 and an interception set at +170. This is an odd line when we consider two things. The first is that Burrow lead the NFL in completion percentage this season. His 70.1% completion rate was better than Matthew Stafford’s 67.9% completion rate. That brings us to the second thing. The same prop for Stafford is set at -220 for a completion.
Take Burrow to complete his first pass at -200.
Rams Side
Our next player prop will remain on the quarterbacks. This one will be on Matthew Stafford, and it will be on him committing the game’s first turnover. Of course fumbles happen, and can come from any position, but we are looking at a quarterback interception as the most likely first turnover.
It is not well publicized that Matthew Stafford actually lead the NFL in interceptions in 2021. His 18 checked in as solo league lead in the stat that no one wants to lead in. Burrow was not world’s better by any means, as he threw 16 picks. That difference of two does not seem like a huge difference on the raw figure, but going from 16 to 18 is a 12.5% increase. It should also be noted Burrow has thrown just two picks in his last seven games. Stafford is the more attractive quarterback to target.
Also note there is a first to occur prop on Stafford on touchdown vs interception. Touchdown costs -270 while interception brings back +220. The +220 is nearly as attractive as the first turnover wager. Note that Stafford is -145 to throw an interception, so the expectation is fully for the interception to happen.
Stafford to commit first turnover at +200.
Running Back Look
The Rams running back rotation will get an addition in the Super Bowl. Darrell Henderson will be returning for the first time since Week 15. This return is up for a debate whether it is an upgrade, and if so at what level. What it will inarguably do is water down the opportunity for Cam Akers and Sony Michel. This brings opportunity on attacking unders on Akers and Michel (when and if available).
Akers has been the Rams lead back throughout the playoffs so far. Of course he returned from a serious injury of his own in training camp. His playoff rushing lines thus far are 17/55/0, 24/48/0 and 13/48/0.
As you can see, he has not been overly productive no matter the level of volume received. The incredibly tiny 2.8 yards per attempt is unspeakably low level. Enter the Akers rushing prop, which is set at a seemingly wildly high 63.5 rushing yards. The Bengals have been adequate, if not outstanding at slowing the rush. In any event, for Akers to sniff the over, he will need an incredible boost in efficiency while almost certainly seeing fewer touches. It would be a shock to see Darrell Henderson active and not realistically involved. The under on 63.5 rushing is something of a gift and a figure I expect to drop throughout the week. Get in as soon as possible on this one.
Take Akers under 63.5 rushing yards.
It is also worth noting that the Akers rushing attempt prop is set at 16.5 attempts. Even if the Rams get a perfect game script and are able to run the ball as much as they want to, Akers could easily land under here. The return of Henderson will be a legitimate factor here.
Akers under 16.5 rushing attempts.
One more under on Akers that is attractive. His first carry yardage is set at 3.5 yards. We know he only averages 2.8 per tote, so taking the under on any specific carry brings real value.
Akers under 3.5 yards on first carry.
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Bengals Side
On the Bengals side, we know Joe Mixon will get the lion’s share of the rushing attempts. His rushing prop is set at 62.5 yards. While the over is certainly the more attractive side, it is not a smash play against the Rams stout front.
Where we do get value is on the Joe Burrow rushing prop, which is set at 11.5 yards. Burrow has played 19 games this season. He has has more than three carries in just four of those games. What’s more, he’s had more than 11 rushing yards in just three of those games. Burrow is a fantastic player, but carrying the ball is certainly not his strength. The under is a screaming value here.
Burrow under 11.5 rushing yards.
Receiving Look
There are not a world of receiving props to look to in Super Bowl LVI. However there are a couple that bring strong value. There is one receiving prop to look at for each team.
For the Rams, the Cooper Kupp number of receptions prop is set at 7.5. This may seem like a large figure, but we must not forget Kupp was a record setter this season. In what is the biggest game of all these Rams careers, it would be insane to not target Kupp at the rate he was targeted all season.
Kupp averaged 8.5 catches per game in the regular season, and has carried that average over to the playoffs. His volume and output has remained remarkably consistent. The matchup with Cincinnati is one that should see the volume continue to be funneled his way. Top wide outs have been targeted against them heavily in the playoffs. Top wide receivers are averaging 10 targets over three games. When we consider Kupp sees 11.2 targets per game, taking the over is a foregone conclusion.
Over 7.5 receptions for Cooper Kupp.
On the Bengals side, it is Tee Higgins that has the attractive prop. For him it is the receiving yardage of 68.5 yards. As more attention has been paid to Jamarr Chase, Higgins has always stepped up when called upon. In the last two games he has seen 19 targets and converted those to 199 yards. He had at least 96 yards in each game. Considering Jalen Ramsey will likely cover Chase for the majority of the day, it makes perfect sense to see another big day from Higgins.
Higgins over 68.5 receiving yards.
MUST SEE PROP
Sometimes we stumble upon a prop that is both available and lined too friendly to comprehend. We have one for the Super Bowl, and it is so simple but yet so perfect, it is difficult to put into words.
Get this, there is a prop for the team to have the first charged timeout. If you follow the Rams on any level, you know no one is more lax with their timeout usage than Sean McVay. He often sees his offense slow to break the huddle, having the wrong personnel or simply blows a challenge. He does not like to take timeouts with him, and often does not worry about having them down the stretch.
Now we look at the odds for first timeout. The Bengals sit at -110 and the Rams at -120.
The Rams to be the first team charged with a timeout may be my favorite prop play of any in this game.
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