Justin Jefferson projections and prop bets for Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans on Nov 17, 2024
Justin Jefferson Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Receiving Yards 81.5 over: -110
- Receiving Yards 81.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet
The leading projections forecast the Vikings to be the 8th-most pass-focused team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.1% pass rate.
The leading projections forecast Justin Jefferson to accumulate 9.1 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
Justin Jefferson's 79.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 70.9.
With a stellar 10.1 adjusted yards per target (85th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson rates among the top WRs in the league in the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has not been good when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.33 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-most in the NFL.
Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet
With a 6-point advantage, the Vikings are favored in this game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Vikings are projected by the predictive model to run just 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Vikings have run the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 55.4 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
Justin Jefferson has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this year (112.0 per game) than he did last year (139.0 per game).
Projection For Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Justin Jefferson is projected to have 82.1 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
