Josh Downs projections and prop bets for Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts on Oct 20, 2024
Josh Downs Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Receiving Yards 51.5 over: 110
- Receiving Yards 51.5 under: -140
Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet
The model projects the Colts to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The model projects Josh Downs to garner 8.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
Josh Downs's 29.0% Target% this year reflects a substantial gain in his pass attack utilization over last year's 18.2% figure.
The Indianapolis O-line profiles as the best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet
This game's spread implies a running game script for the Colts, who are favored by 3 points.
The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 61.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Colts have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.0 plays per game.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Dolphins, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 28.4 per game) this year.
Josh Downs's 3.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year signifies a remarkable decrease in his effectiveness in the open field over last year's 4.9% mark.
Projection For Josh Downs Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Josh Downs is projected to have 59 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
Josh Downs Player Prop Bet: Receptions
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Receptions 4.5 over: 125
- Receptions 4.5 under: -165
Trends Favoring The Over Receptions Prop Bet
The model projects the Colts to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The model projects Josh Downs to garner 8.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
Josh Downs's 29.0% Target% this year reflects a substantial gain in his pass attack utilization over last year's 18.2% figure.
Josh Downs's pass-catching performance been refined this year, averaging 7.1 adjusted receptions compared to just 4.0 last year.
Trends Favoring The Under Receptions Prop Bet
This game's spread implies a running game script for the Colts, who are favored by 3 points.
The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 61.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Colts have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.0 plays per game.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Dolphins, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 28.4 per game) this year.
Projection For Josh Downs Receptions Prop Bet
Josh Downs is projected to have 5.3 Receptions in this weeks game.
