D.J. Moore projections and prop bets for New England Patriots at Chicago Bears on Nov 10, 2024
D.J. Moore Player Prop Bet: Receptions
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Receptions 4.5 over: 130
- Receptions 4.5 under: -160
Trends Favoring The Over Receptions Prop Bet
The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.16 seconds per play.
The leading projections forecast D.J. Moore to total 7.7 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 87th percentile among WRs.
The Chicago offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Patriots pass defense has yielded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.4%) to WRs this year (69.4%).
When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, New England's collection of LBs has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the league.
Trends Favoring The Under Receptions Prop Bet
The Bears are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.
The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to be the 7th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
D.J. Moore has been a much smaller piece of his offense's pass game this season (25.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (30.0%).
D.J. Moore's 4.5 adjusted receptions per game this season indicates a substantial decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 5.7 mark.
D.J. Moore's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 73.2% to 62.6%.
Projection For D.J. Moore Receptions Prop Bet
D.J. Moore is projected to have 4.5 Receptions in this weeks game.
D.J. Moore Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Receiving Yards 47.5 over: -114
- Receiving Yards 47.5 under: -114
Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet
The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.16 seconds per play.
The leading projections forecast D.J. Moore to total 7.7 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 87th percentile among WRs.
The Chicago offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Patriots pass defense has yielded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.4%) to WRs this year (69.4%).
This year, the deficient New England Patriots defense has conceded the 7th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing WRs: a massive 8.67 yards.
Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet
The Bears are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.
The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to be the 7th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
D.J. Moore has been a much smaller piece of his offense's pass game this season (25.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (30.0%).
After accumulating 100.0 air yards per game last year, D.J. Moore has seen a big decrease this year, currently boasting 71.0 per game.
D.J. Moore has accumulated quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (49.0) this season than he did last season (77.0).
Projection For D.J. Moore Receiving Yards Prop Bet
D.J. Moore is projected to have 55.8 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
