Cole Kmet projections and prop bets for New England Patriots at Chicago Bears on Nov 10, 2024
Cole Kmet Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Receiving Yards 25.5 over: -114
- Receiving Yards 25.5 under: -114
Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet
The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.16 seconds per play.
Cole Kmet has posted a colossal 33.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile among TEs.
The Chicago offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
With a stellar 45.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (90th percentile) this year, Cole Kmet ranks as one of the top TE receiving threats in football.
This year, the anemic Patriots defense has yielded a staggering 57.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 9th-most in the league.
Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet
The Bears are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.
The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to be the 7th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Cole Kmet has been a less important option in his offense's passing game this year (13.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (20.4%).
Projection For Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Cole Kmet is projected to have 26.6 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
Cole Kmet Player Prop Bet: Receptions
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Receptions 2.5 over: -102
- Receptions 2.5 under: -128
Trends Favoring The Over Receptions Prop Bet
The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.16 seconds per play.
The Chicago offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Cole Kmet's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 83.1% to 91.1%.
When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, New England's collection of LBs has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the league.
Trends Favoring The Under Receptions Prop Bet
The Bears are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.
The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to be the 7th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Cole Kmet has been a less important option in his offense's passing game this year (13.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (20.4%).
Cole Kmet's 3.9 adjusted receptions per game this season indicates a substantial drop-off in his receiving proficiency over last season's 4.9 mark.
Projection For Cole Kmet Receptions Prop Bet
Cole Kmet is projected to have 2.4 Receptions in this weeks game.
