Brock Purdy projections and prop bets for San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Nov 10, 2024
Brock Purdy Player Prop Bet: Touchdown Passes
Touchdown Passes Prop Bet Odds:
- Touchdown Passes 1.5 over: -140
- Touchdown Passes 1.5 under: 108
Trends Favoring The Over Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (39.7 per game) this year.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 7th-highest rate in the NFL against the Buccaneers defense this year (73.6% Adjusted Completion%).
The Buccaneers defense has allowed the 3rd-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 2.00 per game this year.
Trends Favoring The Under Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
With a 6-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 53.3% of their chances: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
With a 47.6% rate of passing the ball near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 9th-least pass-focused team in the league in these cases has been the 49ers.
The model projects the 49ers to run the 7th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Brock Purdy's passing precision has tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 69.6% to 64.9%.
Projection For Brock Purdy Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
Brock Purdy is projected to have 1.8 Touchdown Passes in this weeks game.
Brock Purdy Player Prop Bet: Interceptions
Interceptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Interceptions 0.5 over: 107
- Interceptions 0.5 under: -139
Trends Favoring The Over Interceptions Prop Bet
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (39.7 per game) this year.
Brock Purdy has logged 0.96 interceptions per game this year, checking in at the 23rd percentile when it comes to QBs.
Trends Favoring The Under Interceptions Prop Bet
With a 6-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 53.3% of their chances: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The model projects the 49ers to run the 7th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Brock Purdy to attempt 31.1 passes this week, on balance: the 7th-fewest among all QBs.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Tampa Bay's CB corps has been excellent this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.
Projection For Brock Purdy Interceptions Prop Bet
Brock Purdy is projected to have 0.4 Interceptions in this weeks game.
Brock Purdy Player Prop Bet: Passing Yards
Passing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Passing Yards 258.5 over: -114
- Passing Yards 258.5 under: -114
Trends Favoring The Over Passing Yards Prop Bet
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (39.7 per game) this year.
With a remarkable rate of 256.0 adjusted passing yards per game (91st percentile), Brock Purdy ranks among the leading passers in football this year.
This year, the weak Buccaneers defense has allowed a massive 257.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 4th-most in the league.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 7th-highest rate in the NFL against the Buccaneers defense this year (73.6% Adjusted Completion%).
Trends Favoring The Under Passing Yards Prop Bet
With a 6-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 53.3% of their chances: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The model projects the 49ers to run the 7th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Brock Purdy to attempt 31.1 passes this week, on balance: the 7th-fewest among all QBs.
Brock Purdy's passing precision has tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 69.6% to 64.9%.
Projection For Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop Bet
Brock Purdy is projected to have 235.5 Passing Yards in this weeks game.
