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Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans Betting Pick & Preview – 12/15/2024
Dolphins vs Texans Betting Odds
| Spread: | Miami Dolphins 3, Houston Texans -3 |
| Over/Under: | 47 |
| Moneyline: | Miami Dolphins 130, Houston Texans -150 |
Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans Win Probabilities
| Implied Win %: | Projected Win %: |
| Miami Dolphins - 42% | Miami Dolphins - 50% |
| Houston Texans - 58% | Houston Texans - 50% |
Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.
Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.
Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans Betting Preview
Sunday the Miami Dolphins (6-7) will battle the Houston Texans (8-5). Oddsmakers peg the Texans as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 58%, leaving the Dolphins with a 42% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Texans -3.0 with a Game Total of 47.0.
Miami's biggest weakness has been their rushing offense, checking in at #29 in the league with a mere 3.68 yards per carry. This represents a particular disadvantage for Miami given that the Texans have excelled in stopping the run this year, allowing just 4.24 yards per carry (#7-best in the league). In terms of their defense, the Dolphins have ranked #8 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 226 yards per game through the air against them (#22 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #21 with 4.43 yards per carry. Miami has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 135 yards per game (#7-best). Miami has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up 7.2 yards per target (#4-worst).
Houston's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 326 yards per game -- #6-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their run defense, which has held opposing ground attacks to the #7-least yards per game: 4.24. To give credit where credit is due, their pass defense has also been terrific, checking in at #5 in yards per target (7.26). This Texans run defense has been anchored by their linebackers, who grade out as the #4-best unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Texans check in at #18 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 231 yards per game (#18 in football). Their run game has ranked #14 with 4.31 yards per attempt on the ground.
Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans Prediction
Final Score: Miami Dolphins 25.53 vs Houston Texans 25.38
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Miami Dolphins
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