Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Prediction – 10/6/2024

Colts vs Jaguars Betting Odds

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview

The last time these two teams played each other was Week 6 in 2023. That game resulted in a win for the Jaguars with a final score of 37-20. They say, good teams win, but great teams cover. The Jaguars not only won, but covered the -4.0 spread that game. The Game Total for that game was 44.0 and which the Over hit.

Indianapolis's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #32 in the league while allowing 429 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to lock down the pass game, as they've allowed opposing QBs pass for the #4-most yards per game: 266. The Colts have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing wide receivers, allowing them to rack up 9.39 yards per target (#2-worst). Indianapolis's pass rush has been weak this year, being weighed down by their defensive ends, which check in as just the #25-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Colts have ranked #24 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 172 yards per game (#27 in football). On the ground they've ranked #10 with 4.58 yards per carry.

Jacksonville's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #2 in football at 5.76 yards per carry. When it comes to their defense, the Jaguars check in at #28 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 267 yards per game against Jacksonville this year (#3 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #26 against them with 4.1 yards per ground attempt. This Jaguars defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, allowing them to complete just 66.3% of their passes (#2-lowest in the league). Jacksonville's defensive effectiveness in the pass game bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 52 yards per game (#3-worst in the league).

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction

Final Score: Indianapolis Colts 21.47 vs Jacksonville Jaguars 25.13

**NOTE: The above stats and rankings are adjusted for context based on sample size and matchup factors. Note that, by design, these stats will not match up with those you find on stat pages and leaderboards around the industry, however are more predictive for ranking stats and for contextualizing the data. Statistics include data from the beginning of the 2023 NFL season to the present time in the 2024 season to allow a more representative sample size.

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