The upcoming matchup between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts is set to be an important one in Week 13. The Colts are at the top of the AFC South standings going into this week, while the Colts are in the mix for a Wild Card spot. That makes this a huge game for the entirety of the AFC playoff picture. Here, I take a closer look at this game, and you can find my Texans vs Colts prediction right here.
Our Texans vs Colts Pick
Pick: Texans +3 (EVEN)
Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
- Date & Time: Sunday, November 30, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
- Broadcast: CBS
Texans vs Colts Odds
- Spread: Colts -3
- Moneyline: Colts -170, Texans +145
- Total: 44.5
Key Storylines
- The Colts have played two straight overtime games. They defeated the Falcons in overtime before losing to the Chiefs in overtime last week. The Colts’ offense is dangerous thanks to their league-leading rushing attack, but that offense will have its work cut out for it against an elite defense.
- Houston’s defense is among the best in the league this season. It has a real opportunity to disrupt Indianapolis’ rhythm and take advantage if the Colts’ passing game falters with Daniel Jones under center.
- For Indianapolis, controlling the clock with their run game and protecting their quarterback will likely be the keys to victory. For Houston, limiting big plays and getting consistent pressure on Jones will be vital.
Quarterback Play
The Texans are getting a significant boost ahead of this game. Their young signal-caller, CJ Stroud, has cleared concussion protocol and is back in the starting lineup. He looked sharp prior to the injury, putting up strong numbers and helping Houston climb back into playoff contention. After surviving playing with Davis Mills for the last few games, Houston will like its chances with its starter back again.
The Colts will likely roll with starter Daniel Jones despite a fractured fibula. He played through the injury last week but looked limited. His mobility could be restricted again, meaning Indianapolis may rely even more heavily on their ground game and short, safe throws.
Betting Trends
- This is the first of two games the Colts and Texans will play against each other this year.
- The Colts are 6-3-2 against the spread so far this season.
- Houston is 5-6 against the spread heading into this contest.
- The Texans are 3-7-1 in the over/under market this year.
- The over is 6-5 in Colts games this year.
Texans vs Colts Model Projection
Score Projection: Texans 24 – Colts 21
Win Probability: Texans 42%, Colts 58%
Final Thoughts
Daniel Jones being banged up is going to be a huge factor in this game. Either Jones plays and is compromised physically against an elite defensive opponent, or Jones doesn’t play and the Colts are bringing in someone cold off the bench. Either way, I’m going to take the points with the Texans in this huge AFC South showdown.
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