The New Orleans Saints travel to face the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday afternoon. New Orleans arrives with a 2–9 record and Miami comes into the game at 4–7. A trip to the playoffs is likely out of the question for both of these teams, but someone has to win in this inter-conference contest. Before kickoff from South Florida, continue reading to get my Saints vs Dolphins prediction.
Our Saints vs Dolphins Pick
- Pick: Miami Dolphins -5.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins
- Date & Time: Sunday, November 30, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
- Broadcast: FOX
Saints vs Dolphins Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins –5.5 | Dolphins –250 / Saints +210 | Over/Under 42.5 |
Key Storylines
- Saints seeking answers offensively. With this season more or less a lost cause, New Orleans is turning more to younger players to spark their offense. In particular, second-year wideout Mason Tipton is getting more attention. He has been seeing increased snaps and special teams action. Chris Olave’s status for this game is in doubt, while Alvin Kamara is out, which will mean more time for the young players in New Orleans to shine.
- Dolphins trending upward. Miami enters the weekend having won three of their last four games, including a confidence-boosting victory abroad in Madrid over the Washington Commanders two weeks ago. Fresh off a bye week, their run game appears to be the focal point for their offensive identity with Tyreek Hill out. Given New Orleans’ struggles stopping the run this season, that could steer this game in Miami’s favor.
- Defensive contrast. Although New Orleans boasts a defense that ranks in the top half of the league in total yardage allowed, their defense usually needs to be close to perfect given the struggles of the New Orleans offense.
Quarterback Play
The starting quarterback duties for New Orleans are currently held by Tyler Shough, who has taken the helm over the past few games. While he’s shown signs of competence, the Saints offense remains among the league’s least productive, averaging just 15.0 points per game. Shough hasn’t helped things much and he will try to take another step forward here.
Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa has 17 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions so far this season. He needs to try to limit turnovers to avoid his team falling against one of the worst teams in the NFL. Miami would be smart to prioritize the run to avoid any problems with Tua here.
Betting Trends
- Miami is 6–5 against the spread this season.
- New Orleans is 3–8 against the spread going into this contest.
- The under has cashed in 8 of New Orleans’ first 11 games this year.
- The Dolphins are 6-4-1 to the over heading into Week 13.
Saints vs Dolphins Model Projection
Score Projection: Miami Dolphins 24 – New Orleans Saints 17
Win Probability: Dolphins 68%, Saints 32%
Final Thoughts
This game presents a clear opportunity for Miami to assert control with their running game against a Saints team that has struggled to stop the run. I’m going to lay the points with Miami in this contest, as they should do enough scoring to outperform a Saints team with a rookie quarterback under center.
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