Cleveland Browns vs Washington Commanders Pick & Preview – 10/6/2024

Browns vs Commanders Betting Odds

Cleveland Browns vs Washington Commanders Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Browns vs Washington Commanders Betting Preview

Sunday the Cleveland Browns (1-3) will battle the Washington Commanders (3-1). Oddsmakers peg the Commanders as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 61%, leaving the Browns with a 39% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Commanders -3.0 with a Game Total of 44.5.

Washington's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #6 in football at 343 yards per game. The quality of their rushing attack has led to much of their success. The Commanders 5.36 yards per carry ranks #4-best in the NFL. This presents a decided advantage for Washington given that the Browns haven't had much success in stopping the run this year, giving up 4.92 yards per carry (#9-worst in the NFL). When it comes to their defense, the Commanders check in at #22 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 224 yards per game against Washington this year (#12 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #6 against them with 5.22 yards per ground attempt. This Commanders defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 15 yards per game (#2-best in the league). Washington's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 168 yards per game (#7-worst in the league).

Cleveland's biggest weakness has been their offense, checking in at #27 in the league with a mere 255 yards per game. A big part of their failure has been the quality (or lack thereof) of their rushing attack, which has been #6-worst in football with just 3.71 yards per carry. In failing to successfully establish the run, Cleveland has also had trouble moving the ball through the air, averaging a paltry 5.25 yards per target, which ranks them #31 in football. In terms of their defense, the Browns have ranked #13 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 198 yards per game through the air against them (#22 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #9 with 4.92 yards per carry. Cleveland has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to a 55.7% completion rate (#1-lowest). Positionally, perhaps their worst defensive asset has been their cornerbacks, which rank just #26 in the league in locking down route-runners.

Cleveland Browns vs Washington Commanders Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Browns 20.09 vs Washington Commanders 21.26

**NOTE: The above stats and rankings are adjusted for context based on sample size and matchup factors. Note that, by design, these stats will not match up with those you find on stat pages and leaderboards around the industry, however are more predictive for ranking stats and for contextualizing the data. Statistics include data from the beginning of the 2023 NFL season to the present time in the 2024 season to allow a more representative sample size.

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