For the second straight year, the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs will square off for the AFC championship. The Bengals enter off of an impressive road win in snowy Buffalo, while the Chiefs held serve at home but enter with injury concerns with Patrick Mahomes. In our NFL playoff predictions for the AFC Championship Game, we look at Bengals vs Chiefs from Kansas City.
Bengals vs Chiefs Betting Pick
| ℹ️ The Pick: | Bengals Moneyline (-105) |
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This game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium at 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, January 29, 2023.
Why Bet the Bengals:
✅ The most obvious component to this bet is that Patrick Mahomes is not going to be at 100% from a health perspective in this game. He was hobbled against the Jaguars, and will lack his typical mobility even if he is able to take the field.
✅ Even when healthy, Mahomes has not been able to lead the Chiefs over the Bengals lately. Cincinnati is 3-0 against the Chiefs over the last two seasons, including a win in Kansas City in the last AFC title game.
✅ The Cincinnati Bengals rank second in the NFL against the spread this season. They went 13-5 against the number on the year, with only the New York Giants having a better win percentage in that department this season. As a one-point underdog here, we will take them to win outright.
NFL
Cincinnati Bengals
Kansas City Chiefs
Team Stats
Passing
Offense/Defense
| CIN | Passing | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 361 | CMP | 303 |
| 527 | ATT | 464 |
| 68.5 | CMP% | 65.3 |
| 271.4 | YDS/GM | 215 |
| 7.5 | Y/A | 6.9 |
| 6.8 | NY/A | 6.1 |
| 8 | INT | 10 |
| 33 | SK | 32 |
Defense/Offense
| CIN | Passing | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 311 | CMP | 337 |
| 477 | ATT | 504 |
| 65.2 | CMP% | 66.9 |
| 239.2 | YDS/GM | 224.1 |
| 7.3 | Y/A | 6.7 |
| 6.7 | NY/A | 5.8 |
| 12 | INT | 11 |
| 25 | SK | 35 |
Rushing
Offense/Defense
| CIN | Rushing | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 309 | ATT | 327 |
| 1275 | YDS | 1287 |
| 91.1 | Y/G | 91.9 |
| 4.1 | Y/A | 3.9 |
| 10 | TD | 11 |
| 0.7 | TD/G | 0.8 |
Defense/Offense
| CIN | Rushing | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 405 | ATT | 391 |
| 1777 | YDS | 1570 |
| 126.9 | Y/G | 112.1 |
| 4.4 | Y/A | 4.0 |
| 18 | TD | 12 |
| 1.3 | TD/G | 0.9 |
Special Teams
Offense/Defense
| CIN | Special Teams | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Punts/Ret | 22 |
| 195 | Punt/Yds | 227 |
| 7.2 | Punt/Y/R | 10.3 |
| 30 | Kick Off/Ret | 23 |
| 853 | Kick Off/Yds | 669 |
| 28.4 | Kick Off/Y/rt | 29.1 |
Defense/Offense
| CIN | Special Teams | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Punts/Ret | 26 |
| 182 | Punt/Yds | 260 |
| 8.7 | Punt/Y/R | 10.0 |
| 14 | Kick Off/Ret | 20 |
| 344 | Kick Off/Yds | 542 |
| 24.6 | Kick Off/Y/rt | 27.1 |
Scoring
Offense/Defense
| CIN | Scoring | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 10 | RshTD | 11 |
| 36 | RecTD | 18 |
| 19 | FGM | 20 |
| 25 | FGA | 27 |
| 28.5 | Pts/G | 18.5 |
Defense/Offense
| CIN | Scoring | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 18 | RshTD | 12 |
| 26 | RecTD | 22 |
| 20 | FGM | 29 |
| 24 | FGA | 33 |
| 27.6 | Pts/G | 23.5 |
Team Advanced Defense
| CIN | Defense | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24.1% | Bltz% | 33.4% |
| 7.6% | Hrry% | 9.2% |
| 11.5% | QB Hit% | 12.7% |
| 22.6% | QB Prss% | 26.3% |
Injuries
| Name | Position | Injury | Status | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cappa | G | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Ben Brown | C | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Brandon Wilson | S | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | CB | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Chris Evans | RB | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Clark Harris | LS | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Drew Sample | TE | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Elijah Holyfield | RB | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Hayden Hurst | TE | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/27/23 |
| Jake Browning | QB | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Jalen Davis | CB | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Jay Tufele | DT | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Jeff Gunter | DE | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Joe Bachie | LB | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/27/23 |
| Jonah Williams | OT | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| La'el Collins | OT | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Ted Karras | C | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/26/23 |
| Tre Flowers | CB | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/27/23 |
| Tycen Anderson | S | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Name | Position | Injury | Status | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bell | TE | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | RB | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Cornell Powell | WR | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Darian Kinnard | OT | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | WR | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Jerick McKinnon | RB | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/26/23 |
| Jody Fortson | TE | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/28/23 |
| Jordan Franks | TE | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Joshua Kaindoh | DE | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Justin Watson | WR | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Justyn Ross | WR | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Malik Herring | DE | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Mecole Hardman | WR | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/26/23 |
| Shane Buechele | QB | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Tershawn Wharton | DT | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/29/23 |
| Willie Gay | LB | Scrambled | Scrambled | 01/26/23 |
Betting Trends
| CIN | Betting Trends | KC |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 3-0-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-0-0 |
| 1-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-2-0 |
| 26 | Avg Score | 28.33 |
| 14.33 | Avg Opp Score | 19 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 3-0-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-0-0 |
| 3-0-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-2-0 |
| 27.67 | Avg Score | 26 |
| 17 | Avg Opp Score | 18 |
| CIN | Betting Trends | KC |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 5-0-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 5-0-0 |
| 3-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 2-3-0 |
| 26.8 | Avg Score | 27.8 |
| 16.8 | Avg Opp Score | 18.2 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 5-0-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 5-0-0 |
| 5-0-0 | ATS W/L/P | 2-3-0 |
| 28 | Avg Score | 26.2 |
| 19.4 | Avg Opp Score | 16.2 |
| CIN | Betting Trends | KC |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 10-0-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 9-1-0 |
| 8-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 3-7-0 |
| 28.3 | Avg Score | 28 |
| 18.5 | Avg Opp Score | 20 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 7-3-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 8-2-0 |
| 8-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 2-8-0 |
| 24.4 | Avg Score | 25.2 |
| 20.6 | Avg Opp Score | 20.2 |
Head to Head
Teams Last 10
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Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals took care of business on the road in the Divisional round of the playoffs. They beat the Buffalo Bills in a game filled with snow, as the running game of the Bengals was able to get going while the Bengals defense slowed down Josh Allen and Buffalo. Here, the Bengals will look for one more road win to get to the Super Bowl for a second straight year.
Of course, the key to this game for the Bengals will be limiting the connection between Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Even with Mahomes banged up, that duo is always a threat. Putting pressure on Mahomes and forcing him to move on his injured leg may be the way to prevent them from getting on the same page.
Kansas City Chiefs
In the Divisional round, the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Jacksonville Jaguars by a touchdown to reach the AFC Championship Game once again. But they will have to overcome an injury to Patrick Mahomes if they are going to win this contest. Mahomes had to come out for the end of the first half due to a leg injury, and was a shell of himself after returning for the second half.
This game will come down to Mahomes’ ability to deal with his injury. If he can scramble and extend plays, the Chiefs’ downfield weapons will have enough time to get open and do damage. If he cannot, the Bengals could be headed back to the biggest stage in American sports.
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