Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions Pick & Prediction – 11/28/2024

Bears vs Lions Betting Odds

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions Betting Preview

The last time these two teams played each other was Week 14 in 2023. That game resulted in a win for the Bears with a final score of 28-13. Chicago entered that game as a 3.0 point road underog. They had an implied win probablity of only 42% before pulling of the upset. The Game Total for that game was 44.5 and which the Under hit.

Chicago's biggest weakness has been their offense, checking in at #27 in the league with a mere 288 yards per game. A big part of their failure has been the quality (or lack thereof) of their rushing attack, which has been #5-worst in football with just 3.6 yards per carry. In failing to successfully establish the run, Chicago has also had trouble moving the ball through the air, averaging a paltry 6.31 yards per target, which ranks them #29 in football. This represents a particular disadvantage for Chicago given that the Lions have excelled in stopping the run this year, allowing just 4.16 yards per carry (#7-best in the league). In terms of their defense, the Bears have ranked #19 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 220 yards per game through the air against them (#23 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #5 with 5.04 yards per carry. Chicago has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 131 yards per game (#6-best). Chicago has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up 9.35 yards per target (#3-worst).

Detroit's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #1 in football at 407 yards per game. The quality of their rushing attack has led to much of their success. The Lions 5.28 yards per carry ranks #3-best in the NFL. Given their ground game success, this has opened up opportunities through the air too; Detroit's 8.82 yards per target puts them #1 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Lions check in at #10 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 234 yards per game against Detroit this year (#13 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #26 against them with 4.16 yards per ground attempt. This Lions defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 5.82 yards per target (#1-best in the league). Detroit's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 174 yards per game (#4-worst in the league).

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Bears 18.04 vs Detroit Lions 30.66

Be sure to check out all our free NFL picks here.