A possible AFC Championship Game preview will take place on Monday Night Football this week in Cincinnati. The Buffalo Bills are visiting the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17, closing out the week’s action with a bang in a game with major seeding implications for both teams. In our NFL picks for Monday Night Football, we break down this Bills vs Bengals matchup.
Bills vs Bengals Betting Pick
| ℹ️ The Pick: | Bills -1 |
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This game will be played at Paycor Stadium at 8:30 PM ET on Monday, January 2, 2023.
Why Bet the Bills:
✅ Buffalo has the number one point differential in the NFL, posting a +157 on the season. That is vastly better than the differential for the Bengals, who have a +85 point differential this season.
✅ Buffalo has the number two scoring defense in the NFL this season, allowing just 17.5 points per game on the season. That will give them a huge advantage over a Cincinnati team whose defense is less consistent as a whole.
NFL
Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals
Team Stats
Passing
Offense/Defense
| BUF | Passing | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 278 | CMP | 311 |
| 431 | ATT | 477 |
| 64.5 | CMP% | 65.2 |
| 238.8 | YDS/GM | 239.2 |
| 7.9 | Y/A | 7.3 |
| 7.5 | NY/A | 6.7 |
| 5 | INT | 12 |
| 13 | SK | 25 |
Defense/Offense
| BUF | Passing | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 329 | CMP | 361 |
| 480 | ATT | 527 |
| 68.5 | CMP% | 68.5 |
| 227.8 | YDS/GM | 271.4 |
| 7.1 | Y/A | 7.5 |
| 6.2 | NY/A | 6.8 |
| 13 | INT | 8 |
| 32 | SK | 33 |
Rushing
Offense/Defense
| BUF | Rushing | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 396 | ATT | 405 |
| 1831 | YDS | 1777 |
| 130.8 | Y/G | 126.9 |
| 4.6 | Y/A | 4.4 |
| 28 | TD | 18 |
| 2 | TD/G | 1.3 |
Defense/Offense
| BUF | Rushing | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 354 | ATT | 309 |
| 1648 | YDS | 1275 |
| 117.7 | Y/G | 91.1 |
| 4.7 | Y/A | 4.1 |
| 11 | TD | 10 |
| 0.8 | TD/G | 0.7 |
Special Teams
Offense/Defense
| BUF | Special Teams | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Punts/Ret | 21 |
| 281 | Punt/Yds | 182 |
| 11.2 | Punt/Y/R | 8.7 |
| 16 | Kick Off/Ret | 14 |
| 415 | Kick Off/Yds | 344 |
| 25.9 | Kick Off/Y/rt | 24.6 |
Defense/Offense
| BUF | Special Teams | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Punts/Ret | 27 |
| 162 | Punt/Yds | 195 |
| 9.0 | Punt/Y/R | 7.2 |
| 20 | Kick Off/Ret | 30 |
| 639 | Kick Off/Yds | 853 |
| 32.0 | Kick Off/Y/rt | 28.4 |
Scoring
Offense/Defense
| BUF | Scoring | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 28 | RshTD | 18 |
| 25 | RecTD | 26 |
| 21 | FGM | 20 |
| 26 | FGA | 24 |
| 31.8 | Pts/G | 27.6 |
Defense/Offense
| BUF | Scoring | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 11 | RshTD | 10 |
| 23 | RecTD | 36 |
| 17 | FGM | 19 |
| 22 | FGA | 25 |
| 22.1 | Pts/G | 28.5 |
Team Advanced Defense
| BUF | Defense | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17.7% | Bltz% | 24.1% |
| 7.7% | Hrry% | 7.6% |
| 9.8% | QB Hit% | 11.5% |
| 22.6% | QB Prss% | 22.6% |
Injuries
| Name | Position | Injury | Status | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Anderson | OT | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Baylon Spector | LB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Dean Marlowe | FS | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Ike Boettger | G | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Jake Kumerow | WR | Ankle | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Jamison Crowder | WR | Ankle | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Justin Murray | OT | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Micah Hyde | S | Neck | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Tommy Doyle | OT | Knee (acl) | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Tommy Sweeney | TE | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Von Miller | LB | Knee | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Xavier Rhodes | CB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Boogie Basham | DE | Calf | Questionable | 12/31/22 |
| Christian Benford | CB | Oblique | Questionable | 01/02/23 |
| Dawson Knox | TE | Hip | Questionable | 12/31/22 |
| Jordan Phillips | DT | Shoulder | Questionable | 12/31/22 |
| Matt Milano | LB | Knee | Questionable | 12/31/22 |
| Taiwan Jones | RB | Hamstring | Questionable | 12/31/22 |
| Cam Lewis | CB | Forearm | Probable | 12/30/22 |
| Jordan Poyer | S | Knee | Probable | 01/02/23 |
| Josh Allen | QB | Elbow | Probable | 12/30/22 |
| Mitch Morse | C | Concussion | Probable | 12/30/22 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | Illness | Probable | 12/31/22 |
| Name | Position | Injury | Status | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Brown | C | Bicep | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Brandon Wilson | S | Knee (acl) | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | CB | Acl | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Chris Evans | RB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Clark Harris | LS | Biceps | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Drew Sample | TE | Knee | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Elijah Holyfield | RB | Knee | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Jackson Carman | G | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Jake Browning | QB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Jalen Davis | CB | Thumb | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Jay Tufele | DT | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/02/23 |
| La'el Collins | OT | Knee | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Sam Hubbard | DE | Calf | Out | 01/02/23 |
| Tycen Anderson | S | Hamstring | Out | 01/02/23 |
| D.J. Reader | DT | Non Injury Related (personal) | Questionable | 12/31/22 |
| Hayden Hurst | TE | Calf | Probable | 12/30/22 |
| Trent Taylor | WR | Hamstring | Probable | 12/30/22 |
Betting Trends
| BUF | Betting Trends | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 3-0-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-0-0 |
| 1-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 3-0-0 |
| 29 | Avg Score | 26.33 |
| 18 | Avg Opp Score | 17 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 3-0-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-0-0 |
| 2-1-0 | ATS W/L/P | 3-0-0 |
| 29 | Avg Score | 30.67 |
| 16 | Avg Opp Score | 18.33 |
| BUF | Betting Trends | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 5-0-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 5-0-0 |
| 2-3-0 | ATS W/L/P | 5-0-0 |
| 27.8 | Avg Score | 25.2 |
| 17.8 | Avg Opp Score | 18.2 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 4-1-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 5-0-0 |
| 3-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 5-0-0 |
| 25.6 | Avg Score | 30.8 |
| 17.6 | Avg Opp Score | 17.4 |
| BUF | Betting Trends | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 8-2-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 9-1-0 |
| 3-6-1 | ATS W/L/P | 9-1-0 |
| 26.8 | Avg Score | 28.3 |
| 20.2 | Avg Opp Score | 21.7 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 7-3-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 8-2-0 |
| 5-5-0 | ATS W/L/P | 9-1-0 |
| 27 | Avg Score | 29.5 |
| 20.2 | Avg Opp Score | 20.4 |
Head to Head
Teams Last 10
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Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills come into this Monday Night Football game having won six games in a row. The most recent of those wins came against the lowly Chicago Bears, with Buffalo running away with that contest in the second half. Here, the Bills will look for a statement win as they hope to hold onto the top spot in the AFC standings.
Pass defense is going to be the key to this game for the Bills, as they face a loaded Bengals aerial attack. Stopping Ja’Marr Chase is difficult enough, but adding weapons like Joe Mixon and Tee Higgins makes that task even tougher. If Buffalo can accomplish that, it would be a huge confidence boost going into the playoffs.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals have a long winning streak of their own, as they have won seven straight games coming into this Monday night matchup. Their latest triumph came against the New England Patriots, as Cincinnati nearly blew a 22-0 lead, but forced a late fumble against their goal line to preserve their victory. Here, the Bengals will have to keep rolling offensively against one of the best defensive teams in the NFL.
For the Bengals, getting something going with their running game would be a huge key to this game. Cincinnati ranks 26th in the league in rushing yards per game, as their preferred mode of offensive movement comes from throwing the football. If the Bengals cannot achieve some variety with their running game, they will have trouble moving the ball against this Buffalo defense.
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