Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs AFC Championship Game Prediction – 1/26/2025

Bills vs Chiefs Betting Odds

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Win Probabilities

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Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

The last time these two teams played each other was Week 11 in 2024. That game resulted in a win for the Bills with a final score of 30-21. The Bills entered that game as a slight road favorite. They were favored by 2.5 points before covering the spread. The Game Total for that game was 47.0 and which the Over hit.

Kansas City's primary disadvantage this season has been their rushing offense, which has ranked #30 in football with a low 3.67 yards per carry. This presents a decided disadvantage for Kansas City given that the Bills run defense has thrived this year, allowing a mere 4.52 yards per carry (good for #13-best in the NFL). When it comes to their defense, the Chiefs check in at #7 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 215 yards per game against Kansas City this year (#19 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #27 against them with 4.18 yards per ground attempt. This Chiefs pass defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 20 yards per game (#1-best in the league). Kansas City's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 63 yards per game (#1-worst in the league).

Buffalo's biggest strength has been their rushing offense, ranking #7 in the league with 4.8 yards per carry. With how successful they've been on the ground, this has opened up opportunities through the air as well; Buffalo has averaged 7.75 yards per target, which ranks them #8 in football. In terms of their defense, the Bills have ranked #14 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 216 yards per game through the air against them (#14 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #20 with 4.52 yards per carry. Buffalo has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 6.73 yards per target (#4-best). Buffalo has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up a 70.8% completion rate (#1-highest).

Bills Look to End Postseason Curse Against Kansas City

The Buffalo Bills got to the AFC Championship Game by defeating the Baltimore Ravens at home in the Divisional playoff round. The Bills beat the Chiefs in the regular season in Orchard Park. But this game is being held in Kansas City and is taking place in the playoffs, where the Bills have seen their season end at the hands of the Chiefs multiple times during the Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes rivalry.

Going into this game, NFL betting sites have made the Bills slight underdogs. For Buffalo to win this game, running the football effectively will be the key. Doing so will allow the Bills to be less predictable on third downs and will prevent Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo from dialing up his signature blitzes in more obvious passing situations. This will include Bills quarterback Josh Allen moving the ball on the ground, something he did effectively in the regular season meeting between these teams.

Chiefs Look For Another Super Bowl Berth

The Kansas City Chiefs are just two wins away from a third straight Super Bowl title. In the Divisional playoffs, the Chiefs defeated the Houston Texans to advance to this stage of the postseason. In that game, the Chiefs defense locked down CJ Stroud and the Texans offense. But the Chiefs defense faces a tougher task in this game as they have to face a Buffalo offense that can hurt them in a number of different ways.

The Chiefs have a reputation for being an explosive offensive team thanks to the presence of Mahomes and Travis Kelce. But their defense has carried them through this season. The question for Kansas City is whether their defense can lock down Allen and the Buffalo offense. Kansas City was outgained 366-259 in Orchard Park in the regular season and Spagnuolo’s defense will certainly look to avenge that performance in this game.

Bills vs Chiefs Best Bet

Our prediction for Bills vs Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game is for the Buffalo Bills to win as a slight underdog on the road. The Chiefs certainly have proven over the years that they are the team to beat until someone can prove otherwise. But this Buffalo team is playing better offensive football right now. Look for Josh Allen to get to his first Super Bowl in what should be an instant classic in Kansas City.

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