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Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview
Last year’s Atlanta Falcons were a disappointment, missing out on the playoffs thanks to some questionable coaching and a lackluster passing attack. This year, the Falcons have a new coach and quarterback, which they hope will translate to more success than they had a season ago. Here, we break down the upcoming season for the Falcons and give you our expectations for Atlanta in the season win total market.
2024 Atlanta Falcons Over/Under Season Win Total Odds
| Sportsbook | Over/Under Wins |
|---|---|
| Caesars Sportsbook | 9.5 |
| BetMGM | 9.5 |
Atlanta Falcons Futures Betting Odds
Standings Data
| 2023 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|
| Actual Record | 7-10 | 7-10 |
| Point Differential | -52 | -21 |
| ATS W/L | 5-12 | 9-8 |
| Over/Under Record | 7-10 | 7-10 |
| Record in Division Games | 3-3 | 2-4 |
Atlanta Falcons Picks, Predictions & Betting News
Offseason Transactions
Key Additions: Kirk Cousins, Michael Penix Jr., Ray-Ray McCloud, Darnell Mooney, Rondale Moore, Eddie Goldman
Key Departures: Desmond Ridder, Mack Hollins, Van Jefferson, Scott Miller, Cordarrelle Patterson, Jonnu Smith, Bud Dupree, Calais Campbell, Tre Flowers, Jeff Okudah
The key to the offseason for the Falcons was figuring out the quarterback position. They attempted to do just that, both by bringing in Kirk Cousins and by reaching to draft Michael Penix Jr. Cousins will be the starter for this team this year, with Penix set to learn from him for the future. But it will be interesting to see how Cousins performs for a team whose expectations are heightened because of him going into the 2024 campaign.
Atlanta Falcons Offensive Stats
| 2023 (Rank) | 2022 (Rank) | |
|---|---|---|
| Yards Per Play | 5.2 (T-14th) | 5.4 (T-14th) |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 4.1 (T-16th) | 4.9 (T-4th) |
| Yards Per Pass Attempt | 7.1 (T-14th) | 7.1 (T-10th) |
| Points Per Game | 18.9 (26th) | 21.5 (T-15th) |
| Turnovers | 28 (T-23rd) | 21 (T-8th) |
On offense, the Falcons were at a disadvantage last season with Desmond Ridder as their quarterback. They have a legitimate star running back in Bijan Robinson to rely on, but former head coach Arthur Smith did not go to him nearly as often as they should have. Now, the Falcons will likely be more consistent with getting Robinson touches under Raheem Morris, while their passing game should improve in moving on from Ridder and bringing in Cousins.
Atlanta Falcons Defensive Stats
| 2023 (Rank) | 2022 (Rank) | |
|---|---|---|
| Yards Per Play Allowed | 5.0 (7th) | 5.7 (T-24th) |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt Allowed | 4.0 (9th) | 4.4 (T-15th) |
| Yards Per Pass Attempt Allowed | 6.3 (T-9th) | 7.0 (T-25th) |
| Points Per Game Allowed | 21.9 (18th) | 22.7 (23rd) |
| Takeaways | 16 (30th) | 17 (T-27th) |
Atlanta’s greatest strength last season was its defense. Despite struggling to generate takeaways, the Falcons did a good job of limiting explosive plays for the most part. With the offense more likely to give the defense a break during games this season, we should see the Falcons defense improve in terms of points allowed. But if this group doesn’t get takeaways on a more consistent basis, they could still lose time of possession battles and games.
Positives & Negatives
Change is the biggest positive for the Falcons going into the 2024 NFL season. They have a new coach and quarterback combo, which should mean not just improved quarterback play, but improved offensive play calling as well. That was one of the main things holding the Falcons back last season and repairing that could go a long way in making the team better moving forward.
As for negatives, the Falcons still have to rely on Kirk Cousins if they want to get better. Cousins has a documented history of struggling against teams that are above average during his time with the Minnesota Vikings. If that does not change, the Falcons will be doomed to mediocrity even if their coaching a play calling improves.
2024 Atlanta Falcons Win Total Prediction: Under 9.5 Wins
Atlanta will be one of the most interesting teams in the NFL early this season, as it will be fascinating to see how all of their changes play out on the field. But we are still going to take the under on the season win total for the Falcons this year, as we are not entirely sold that Cousins is going to be the answer to this team’s problems. Much like Derek Carr going to New Orleans last year, this could be a disappointing season for a team with a new quarterback in the NFC South.
